Putin has publicly denied plans to attack Europe five times this year: on May 9, June 4, and September 11, 18, and 25. If you know Putin, it's almost more concerning than if he had said he was going to attack.

Western governments should judge Putin by what he does, not what he says. He has raised the ceiling of Russia's armed forces to about 2.44 million and will add roughly 300,000 men through quiet, creeping mobilization.

Today marks 20 years since Novaya Gazeta journalist Anna Politkovskaya was murdered in Moscow. She recognized Putin's true nature earlier than most—and the regime could never erase the truth she died to tell.

Russia is producing more missiles than it is using. I expect Putin to use the accumulated missiles when the cold arrives, so that every strike on Ukraine’s infrastructure, every power cut and every loss of heating has the worst possible consequences for ordinary people.

Putin says he must conquer Donbas to save people from the “Kyiv regime.” Then why is he willing to stop at the front line in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia? Why can those people be left “unsaved”? His own position exposes the absence of logic in that justification.

Putin: The war will continue until its root causes are eliminated. The root cause of the war:

Ceasefires without strong military deterrence only grant Putin time to regroup, rearm, and strike again. Having broken every signed agreement from domestic laws to international treaties, he only respects unmistakable, physical force.

Putin wanted to stop NATO expansion, but his war in Ukraine forced Europe to rearm and spend record sums on defense. Instead of pushing the alliance away, he brought it closer, doubled the border with NATO, and left Russia vastly weaker and more isolated than before

Trump’s alleged liking for Putin does not prevent him from welcoming a bill that expands his own powers. He gets another instrument, with considerable freedom over how to use it. I expect him to use it much as he has used the instruments already available to him. [6/6]

The package also gives Trump a way to replace tariffs struck down by the US Supreme Court because he lacked the authority to impose them. Similar tariffs could be introduced under the new legislation. It would be strange if he did not use that opportunity. [5/6]

Russia’s two largest trading partners are China and India. I think the chances of Trump imposing the full 100% tariffs on either country are extremely small. The bill allows tariffs of up to 100%, giving him room to choose. [4/6]

Trump can grant broad exemptions in America’s national interest. US–Russia trade is already very small, and energy imports have long since stopped. What remains could easily be treated as an exception. [3/6]

The law provides for a 500% tariff on Russian imports and tariffs of up to 100% on goods from countries that buy from Russia. It also expands the options for action against the shadow fleet. On paper, these are severe measures. [2/6]

The new US sanctions package looks very tough. 🧵But it gives Trump broader powers without concrete obligations to use them against Putin. [1/6]

If you live in a country where the outcome of an election is actually unknown ahead of time, never take that for granted.