@abulrizvi.bsky.social
Interested in population and immigration policy. Father of 2 daughters and 2 grandsons. Collingwood supporter since 1968.
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialNet permanent & longterm movement data, temporary entrant stock data & student grant data all point to NOM being marginally below Govt’s 25-26 target of 295k and 26-27 target of 245k.
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialWhile there are many arithmetical problems with One Nation’s immigration policy, its Bridging Visa target is far more plausible than the Coalition’s. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialThis morning Tony Burke said Treasury NOM forecasts would, for the first time, be treated as targets. In 2025 he said ‘there is no magic number’. I called for NOM targeting in this speech to the NPC in 2024. youtu.be/2-srtoBV-Xc
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialJust waiting for Trump, Netenyahu & Murdoch press to attack her. www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/10...
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialA bidding war on who can cut NOM the most is not very intelligent. Aren’t we a bit smarter than that? podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/c...
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialCoalition’s proposed policy actions would not deliver their NOM target or their temporary entrant stock reduction target. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialCoalition won’t come close to delivering its NOM target of 100k in each of first two years. Those are political targets not policy targets. Bringing back the Ag visa would turbo charge exploitation & abuse of the asylum system. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialMore nuance in this than usual media on Canadian immigration policy. Canada reduced NOM from very high level in 23-24 to less than 200k in 2025 (in conjunction with a weak labour market), NOM rebounding strongly in last 2 quarters with a stronger labour market www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialDetention & deportation is never easy nor cheap. Politicians who think they can quickly and cheaply implement ‘mass deportations’ either don’t understand this or are happy to mislead voters.
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialGaming of the asylum system by agents/lawyers took off in 2015. Why has it taken over 10 years to act? Will the action work? www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10...
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialHegseth is worried about bias in advice on future of warfare so he has appointed Musk to advise him - someone with heaps of $Billion defence contracts & zero conflict of interest!!! www.foxnews.com/politics/elo...
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialGovt has managed this very poorly. The gaming was entirely predictable. www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialFor those who argue population ageing isnt an issue & Japan isn’t becoming increasingly reliant on overseas workers. www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/09...
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialConcern of farmers about Burke’s recent immigration announcements do not relate to number of WHMs in OZ. They relate to (1) No of WHMs forced to work on farms. (2) Increased risk farmers using undocumented workers will be caught. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialABS this week published comprehensive data on all permanent migrants since 2000. It shows skill stream migrants, inc partners of skill stream migrants, perform extraordinarily well in OZ labour market. johnmenadue.com/post/2026/09...
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialThere are better ways to hit NOM targets & reduce number of ‘permanently temporary’ than ramping up refusal rates. thepienews.com/australia-sq...
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialI was on The Brieging this morning discussing immigration policy. podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/t...
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialIn 2019, I wrote this for SMH on Frydenberg’s assumptions in 2019 (back in black budget) of 270k per annum NOM & fertility of 1.9 births per woman. Today’s IGR assumes NOM of 235k per annum & fertility falling to 1.34 births per woman. Hence we age faster. www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialIt’s good Burke commited to a NOM target. He announced some good initiatives and some poorly designed ones. But its the problems he failed to address that was disappointing. independentaustralia.net/politics/pol...
@abulrizvi.bsky.socialBefore usual suspects start conspiracy theories behind fertility rate assumption in today’s IGR, remember OZ fertility rate is still one of highest in developed world & we will be one of the last developed nations to reach point where deaths exceed births.