People tend to think that most of our plastic ends up there, but only a tiny percentage does. This should make plastic pollution an easier problem to solve: we already know how to manage most of it well. The challenge is to ensure that all plastic is handled this way.

From there, a decreasing fraction of plastic waste leaks to the environment, then into rivers and coastlines, and finally into the ocean. Around 1.7 million tonnes end up there: around 0.5% of what was generated in the first place.

The chart shows how the OECD gets to this number. Globally, we produce around 350 million tonnes of plastic waste a year. Most of this is managed responsibly, either in secure landfills, through recycling, or incineration. But around one-quarter of it is mismanaged or littered.

In 2020, Gapminder asked people in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, and the UK this question. They had three options to choose from: Almost nine in ten people picked B or C, thinking it was more than one-third. The correct answer was A: around 0.5% of plastic waste ends up in the ocean.

What share of plastic waste ends up in the ocean? Many of us will have seen the stark images of plastic in the ocean: bottles and wrappers clumped together, or rubbish trapped along the coastline. But how much of the world’s plastic waste ends up in the ocean?

If we combined all four of these changes, all regions would see mean habitat losses of 1% or less by 2050. What stands out across the individual changes is the dramatic impact that closing yield gaps has, particularly across sub-Saharan Africa.

The researchers also assessed the most effective changes we can make to limit the impact on global wildlife: closing yield gaps, so that crop yields reach 80% of their estimated maximum potential; halving food waste and losses; shifting toward a plant-rich (but not vegan) diet; and optimizing trade.

The researchers mapped the changes in habitat area for 19,859 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians. Nearly all (88%) of these species would lose at least some of their habitat by 2050.

In their business-as-usual scenario, crop yields continue to increase at rates similar to those in the past, and by 2050, the world will need 26% more cropland — an area the size of India and Germany combined. Cropland expansion would be intense across sub-Saharan Africa.

Researchers David Williams, Michael Clark, and colleagues mapped out what the future of agricultural expansion and habitat loss might look like.

Habitat loss is the biggest threat to the world’s wildlife. Nearly all habitat loss is driven by the expansion of agriculture: we chop down forests and convert wild grasslands into farmland to grow crops and raise livestock.

It’s a bit more complicated than a “we’ve lost 73% of wildlife” headline might suggest. When we dig beneath the headline number, we find that around half of the studied populations have declined, but just as many have either increased or remained stable.

Instead, the Living Planet Index captures the average decline in population numbers across almost 36,000 populations. These changes are then averaged using a geometric mean and given different weightings in the final index.

Some may report that the world has lost “73% of animal populations since 1970” or “73% of species are in decline”. Neither of these is correct, and the report’s authors go to great lengths to stress this.

The headline is a 73% average decline in wildlife populations since 1970. Declines in global biodiversity are extremely concerning, but many of the news headlines you’ll see today will probably report this latest result incorrectly. At least they have in previous years.

📝 New article on Our World in Data: A 73% average decline in wildlife populations: an overview of the 2026 Living Planet Index report. The 2026 Living Planet Index report is published today. As with previous additions, it can make for a depressing read.