“If the Chancellor simply pencils in implicit cuts that he knows he would never be willing to deliver, his plans to cut borrowing, and thereby meet the fiscal rules, won’t be realistic.” @helenmiller.bsky.social outlines John Healey's choices as part of the IFS Green Budget 2026, out today.

NEW: Electricity prices in the UK are among the highest in the G7. Why is this? And what can the government do about it? Our new IFS Green Budget chapter explains: [THREAD] ⬇️

NEW: The English and Welsh justice system is under strain. But more funding alone won't alone fix the system’s problems. Our new Transforming Justice report, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, examines the resources pressures facing the system: [THREAD]

This is the first chapter we have published from this year’s IFS Green Budget, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org and in association with Barclays. We will have lots more interesting chapters published in the coming weeks! [9/9]

In the report, we examine how the OBR accounts for the impacts of changes in migration policy, and then how it accounts for the impacts of migration on its tax and spending forecasts, including the large differences between different types of migrants [7/9]

Migration policy changes can have big economic effects. This chart shows illustrative estimates of the effects of these 3 policies on GDP. These could have been larger than any of the high-profile ‘supply-side’ policies since 2023, inc planning reform and childcare subsidies. [5/9]

Lots of this has been driven by big changes in immigration policy in the last 6 years, including policies like the visa route for Hong Kongers in 2020, restrictions on international student routes in 2023 and restrictions on Skilled Worker visas in 2025 [4/9]

There have also been big changes in composition, with most immigration now from outside the EU. International students and dependents made up almost half of non-EU immigrants in 2025, while workers and their dependents made up another quarter, and asylum seekers ~15% [3/9]

There have been large changes in estimates of both immigration and emigration in recent years, with a large rise and subsequent fall in net migration, the difference between the two. Latest Home Office visa data suggests immigration estimates could continue to fall [2/9]

We have a new report out today taking a deep dive into how migration and its fiscal impacts feed through the OBR’s public finance forecast. A short thread on why this matters [1/9]

Migration could be quite important at this year’s budget, as falling migration feeds through into the OBR’s forecast and the government’s “headroom” against its fiscal rules. Given this, a thread on how migration affects the public finances:

But given ambitious targets for improving NHS performance over this parliament, the government may face a choice between revising down expectations for performance improvements or increasing budgets for the coming years above current plans [11/12]

Looking ahead, the key question is whether the era of annual NHS top-ups is now over, or whether 25-26 was just a one-off. Fewer last-minute top-ups, transfers and fiscal changes could mean more money for other priorities. [10/12]

Hospitals also slowed down their activity and staffing growth to stick within budgets. This is consistent with the NHS having stronger financial ‘grip’ on trusts, but also shows the trade-off: all else equal, not topping up budgets will slow down performance improvements. [9/12]

Some of the top ups in 23-24 and 24-25 also came from much higher inflation than expected. Hospitals have also continued to get more productive – again, all else equal this makes it easier to stick within a given budget and still deliver performance improvements [8/12]