@kevinbonham.bsky.social
Psephologist, polling analyst and poll transparency advocate, political commentator, ecologist, chess player/admin. No party loyalties. Not-A-Pollster.
@kevinbonham.bsky.socialThe Nats are actually in coalition though.
@kevinbonham.bsky.social@kevinbonham.bsky.socialMorgan has at least for now returned to fortnightly polling.
@kevinbonham.bsky.social#Morgan ALP 26 L-NP 21.5 ON 24 Grn 15 IND/other 13.5
Their 2PP respondent prefs 53 to ALP vs L-NP (-.5)
last election prefs 53.5 to ALP (+1.5)
my conversion 52.8 (+1.1)
Their ALP vs ON respondent prefs 54.5 to ALP (+1)
my conversion 53.0 (+1.3)
@kevinbonham.bsky.socialOne Nation saying they will work to remove Labor but also they will impose policy conditions on supply and confidence to L-NP. So what will they do if L-NP does not accept their conditions? #springst
@kevinbonham.bsky.socialNot yet, I expect it to be posted in coming days
@kevinbonham.bsky.social@kevinbonham.bsky.socialNewspoll is usually good for Labor, last one may have been random variation.
@kevinbonham.bsky.socialAlso worth remembering with MRPs that they are designed to pick overall trends and some individual seats are always nonsense.
@kevinbonham.bsky.socialMy estimated 2PP for these primaries is 52.0-48.0 to ALP, 52.1-47.9 vs ON. So this points to a possibility that Labor can win outright off that (which is basically where they are in polling currently though I have them a little weaker v ON).
@kevinbonham.bsky.socialOf the seats that DemosAU has Labor winning narrowly I would expect them to lose about seven to One Nation on the figures provided (once adjusted for this Labor stops being lucky in such seats). Still interesting that Labor might just scrape a majority off such a poor primary.
@kevinbonham.bsky.socialSecondly they are using respondent prefs for ALP vs ON contests and as a result estimating only a 61% flow from L-NP to ON in them. This is ignoring the impact if L-NP HTV cards recommend prefs to ON.
@kevinbonham.bsky.socialFirstly their projection has ALP by luck winning a very high share of very close contests (including all 6 with 50-50 2CPs and 13/21 with 51 or 52), in reality by random variation Labor would not be that lucky.
@kevinbonham.bsky.socialDemosAU have a "central projection" with ALP 84 L-NP 34 ON 24 Grn 0 others 8. This is based on seats where a party is leading in their projection but it should be disregarded for two reasons.
@kevinbonham.bsky.social#DemosAU MRP 4 Aug-19 Sep
Primaries ALP 27 L-NP 22 ON 25 Grn 13 Ind/other 13
Their seat ranges ALP 73-85 L-NP 25-44 ON 22-35 Grn 0-3 others 5-10, my comments to follow.
@kevinbonham.bsky.socialCorrection to my conversion figures for Resolve. 2PP should have been ALP 52.2 vs L-NP (+1.3) ALP vs ON should have been 52.6 to ALP (+1.6)
@kevinbonham.bsky.social#Newspoll netsats Albanese -24
Taylor -11
Hanson -9
@kevinbonham.bsky.social#Newspoll ALP 29 L-NP 20 ON 28 Grn 14 Ind/other 9
No 2PP. My estimate ALP 53.5 vs L-NP (+2.3)
My ALP vs ON estimate 52.3 to ALP (+2.1)
@kevinbonham.bsky.social#RedbridgeAccent Vic (state) ALP 24 L-NP 30 ON 24 Grn 16 (!) Ind/other 6 (seems too low)
Their 2PP respondent prefs 56-44 to L-NP
My est 53.5 to L-NP
Their ALP vs ON respondent prefs 55-45 to ALP
My est 50.5 to ON
I'd expect an L-NP majority off these primaries.
@kevinbonham.bsky.social#ResolvePM ALP 29 L-NP 23 ON 25 Grn 12 IND 6 others 5
No 2PP published. My estimate ALP 52.8 vs L-NP (+1.9)
My ALP vs ON estimate 53.3 to ALP (+2.3)
