Ian Smith

@iankmsmith.ft.com

Senior Markets Correspondent at the Financial Times. Previously insurance, finance, stocks, pensions, you get the idea. This is my real account: I never promote crypto or any other investment

Stories: https://www.ft.com/ian-smith
Contact: [email protected]

@brokenbanker.bsky.socialReposted by @iankmsmith.ft.com

really going to be a PUSU (Put Up or Shut Up) earnings season starting today with US banks. expectations sky high in tech, and we all know it. what we don't know is what the market does with beats elsewhere, but given how much non-tech has sold off, guessing 🚀, especially if CPI isn't hot tomorrow:

US margin expectations
@iankmsmith.ft.com

…on the other, things like the BoE’s QT overhaul, and what the ECB is under pressure to do with France, are interesting in this light. And more of the squeeze is ahead

@iankmsmith.ft.com

We wrote this last year with people seeing this coming… as.ft.com/r/a6d85dea-e... Investors warn of ‘new era of fiscal dominance’ in global markets

…on the one hand, big CBs have increased rates this year in response to a new inflation shock, so it’s hard to argue this is happening now…

@iankmsmith.ft.com

“The IMF added that with fiscal costs rising and electoral pressures intensifying in many countries, “central banks may face renewed calls to accommodate higher public borrowing or tolerate inflation above target”.” Central banks:

@iankmsmith.ft.com

Citi on France: "In our base case, where 10Y yields stabilise at 4.2%, France will spend 3.7% of GDP on debt service by the end of the decade, a number that will eventually converge towards 4.8%. The previous peak was 3.6% in 1996."

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