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Institute for the Study of War

@thestudyofwar.bsky.social

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ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. Email: [email protected]. For more: https://linktr.ee/understandingwar

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@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 2:11 AM

8/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced northeast of Lyman and east of Oleksandrivka.

Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar100926

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 2:11 AM

7/ Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes against Russian defense industrial facilities and oil infrastructure in Russia overnight on October 8 to 9. Russian forces launched 136 drones against Ukraine overnight.

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 2:11 AM

6/ Russia is likely attempting to indigenize the production and assembly of key Geran-type strike drone components in cooperation with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 2:11 AM

5/ Ukrainian forces conducted a second long-range strike against a Yandex (Russia’s closest analog to Google) data center in Kaluga Oblast on October 9.

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 2:11 AM

4/ The Montenegrin Police Directorate deported Zvinchuk and his associates to Russia shortly after their detention on October 9 despite Zvinchuk being under British sanctions and being an internationally wanted person by the US government.

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 2:11 AM

3/ Russian officials and milbloggers responded with outrage and urged the Russian government to take retaliatory measures, including reciprocally detaining US and European nationals, in response to Zvinchuk’s arrest.

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 2:11 AM

2/ Montenegrin law enforcement authorities detained Mikhail Zvinchuk — the founder of the Russian ultranationalist Telegram channel “Rybar” — in Risan, Bay of Kotor, Montenegro on the morning of October 9.

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 2:11 AM

NEW: President Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin on Oct 9 to waive sanctions on Russian diesel to increase diesel supply to the US and global markets — a decision which will fund Russia’s war effort and protract Russia’s war in Ukraine.🧵(1/)

Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar100926

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:08 AM

4/ Saudi Arabia struck Houthi ballistic missile infrastructure in Yemen as part of an effort to degrade Houthi capabilities central to the group’s strike campaign against Saudi Arabia. isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:08 AM

3/ The Houthi campaign targeting Saudi critical infrastructure aims to impose increasing pressure on Saudi Arabia in an effort to compel Saudi Arabia to accept Houthi demands and end Saudi operations in Yemen.

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:08 AM

2/ Yemeni government-aligned forces have continued to stall Houthi advances in central Taiz Governorate on October 9 amid Houthi efforts to encircle and capture Taiz City.

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:08 AM

NEW: Yemeni government-aligned forces reportedly captured Perim Island and recaptured areas around the Bab al Mandeb Strait from Houthi forces on October 9, which reduces Houthi access to territory nearest the Bab al Mandeb and international shipping lanes.

Iran Update: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 4:28 PM

4/ China & Taiwan Update, October 9, 2026:

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 4:28 PM

3/ The PRC interfered with a Philippine medical evacuation at Second Thomas Shoal. The PRC is likely no longer abiding by a 2024 provisional agreement with the Philippines to allow resupply missions and is trying to make Philippine positions in the South China Sea increasingly untenable.

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 4:28 PM

2/ Other Key Takeaways: The PRC likely seeks to acquire US semiconductors to further PRC artificial intelligence (AI) development and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) modernization.

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 4:28 PM

NEW: US and Taiwanese authorities have indicted multiple individuals for illegally reselling US-manufactured semiconductors to the People’s Republic of China (PRC); in some cases routing chips through Southeast Asia to get around US restrictions. (1/4)

Read the full report: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 4:14 AM

7/ Ukrainian forces struck two Russian oil refineries with a combined processing capacity of 31 million tons of oil per year on October 8. Russian forces launched 142 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar100826

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 4:14 AM

6/ Russian forces recently advanced in Kostyantynivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 4:13 AM

5/ European officials continue to name Russia as the party responsible for sabotage against European defense industrial enterprises involved in manufacturing and delivering weapons to Ukraine.

@thestudyofwar.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 4:13 AM

4/ Ongoing Russian efforts to use glide bomb strikes to shape the battlefield in the Donetsk Oblast Fortress Belt resulted in mass civilian casualties on October 8.

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