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LeRaffl

@leraffl.bsky.social

92 Following1.6k Followers

Math dude, doing math with BEV market shares

https://ts.la/raphael59773

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@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 12:00 PM

If this pace holds, BEV crosses 50% of new cars in about four years or so.

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 12:00 PM

Graphs are available in the Gallery: https://leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery/

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 12:00 PM

🇲🇾 Malaysia - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 +4.1pp BEV (3.9% → 8.0%) +2.1pp Hybrid (3.4% → 5.5%) −6.1pp ICE (92.7% → 86.5%) If the changes from the last 6 months continued linearly, BEV would become the largest powertrain in 2033-03.

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 12:00 PM

August was a record month for Malaysia, 11.4% BEV. September pulled back to 8.1%, still clearly above anything before this year. Hybrids are picking up too. 7.3% in September, TTM climbed from 3.4% to 5.5%.

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 12:00 PM

🇲🇾 Malaysia - September 26 - BEV Trajectory
8.1% BEV
7.3% Hybrid
84.5% ICE

Trailing 12 months are:
8.0% BEV
5.5% Hybrid
86.5% ICE

Graphs are available in the Gallery: https://leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery/

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 11:00 AM

Vans are almost on par with cars speed-wise in Denmark.

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 11:00 AM

PHEV peaked at 3.0% in 2025-08 (declining for 13 months).
If the changes from the last 6 months continued linearly, BEV would become the largest powertrain in 2027-03.

Graphs are available in the Gallery: https://leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery/

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 11:00 AM

🇩🇰 Denmark (Vans) - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 +14.3pp BEV (27.3% → 41.6%) −1.6pp PHEV (2.7% → 1.1%) +0.0pp HEV (0.0% → 0.0%) −12.7pp ICE (70.0% → 57.3%)

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 11:00 AM

The BEV and ICE curves for Vans just crossed. Battery electric is now the default, combustion the exception.

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 11:00 AM

Vans crossed 50% too, record share at 53.0% in September, the previous high was 49.9% in August. Not a record in absolute numbers though, 1,191 BEV, below June's 1,284. The market itself is just smaller right now.

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 11:00 AM

🇩🇰 Denmark (Vans) - September 26 - BEV Trajectory
53.0% BEV
0.7% PHEV
46.3% ICE

Trailing 12 months are:
41.6% BEV
1.1% PHEV
57.3% ICE

Graphs are available in the Gallery: https://leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery/

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 10:45 AM

Heavy Duty Vehicles are the slowest of Denmark's segments, still years behind cars, currently roughly on part with Vans but that may be random fluctuation.

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 10:45 AM

Graphs are available in the Gallery: https://leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery/

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 10:45 AM

🇩🇰 Denmark (HDV) - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 +7.8pp BEV (23.6% → 31.4%) +0.0pp Hybrid (0.0% → 0.0%) −7.8pp ICE (76.4% → 68.6%) If the changes from the last 6 months continued linearly, BEV would become the largest powertrain in 2028-08.

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 10:45 AM

This segment is tiny and volatile (total volumes are only a couple hundred trucks a month), so it's surprising how little this transition jumps around. But the direction is clear.

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 10:45 AM

Heavy Duty Vehicles crossed the 50% BEV mark, 50.2% in September. Record in absolute numbers too, 101 BEV, the most ever in one month.

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 10:45 AM

🇩🇰 Denmark (HDV) - September 26 - BEV Trajectory
50.2% BEV
0.0% PHEV
49.8% ICE

Trailing 12 months are:
31.4% BEV
0.0% PHEV
68.6% ICE

Graphs are available in the Gallery: https://leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery/

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 10:34 AM

In September BEV 13289 PHEV 8 Petrol 275 Diesel 83 Total 13655

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 10:30 AM

Industry is simply still a bit behind Private, but closing the gap fast.

@leraffl.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 10:30 AM

Graphs are available in the Gallery: https://leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery/

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