Math dude, doing math with BEV market shares
If this pace holds, BEV crosses 50% of new cars in about four years or so.

@leraffl.bsky.social
Math dude, doing math with BEV market shares
If this pace holds, BEV crosses 50% of new cars in about four years or so.
Graphs are available in the Gallery: https://leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery/
🇲🇾 Malaysia - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 +4.1pp BEV (3.9% → 8.0%) +2.1pp Hybrid (3.4% → 5.5%) −6.1pp ICE (92.7% → 86.5%) If the changes from the last 6 months continued linearly, BEV would become the largest powertrain in 2033-03.
August was a record month for Malaysia, 11.4% BEV. September pulled back to 8.1%, still clearly above anything before this year. Hybrids are picking up too. 7.3% in September, TTM climbed from 3.4% to 5.5%.
🇲🇾 Malaysia - September 26 - BEV Trajectory
8.1% BEV
7.3% Hybrid
84.5% ICE
Trailing 12 months are:
8.0% BEV
5.5% Hybrid
86.5% ICE
Graphs are available in the Gallery: https://leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery/
Vans are almost on par with cars speed-wise in Denmark.
PHEV peaked at 3.0% in 2025-08 (declining for 13 months).
If the changes from the last 6 months continued linearly, BEV would become the largest powertrain in 2027-03.
Graphs are available in the Gallery: https://leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery/
🇩🇰 Denmark (Vans) - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 +14.3pp BEV (27.3% → 41.6%) −1.6pp PHEV (2.7% → 1.1%) +0.0pp HEV (0.0% → 0.0%) −12.7pp ICE (70.0% → 57.3%)
The BEV and ICE curves for Vans just crossed. Battery electric is now the default, combustion the exception.
Vans crossed 50% too, record share at 53.0% in September, the previous high was 49.9% in August. Not a record in absolute numbers though, 1,191 BEV, below June's 1,284. The market itself is just smaller right now.
🇩🇰 Denmark (Vans) - September 26 - BEV Trajectory
53.0% BEV
0.7% PHEV
46.3% ICE
Trailing 12 months are:
41.6% BEV
1.1% PHEV
57.3% ICE
Graphs are available in the Gallery: https://leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery/
Heavy Duty Vehicles are the slowest of Denmark's segments, still years behind cars, currently roughly on part with Vans but that may be random fluctuation.
Graphs are available in the Gallery: https://leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery/
🇩🇰 Denmark (HDV) - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 +7.8pp BEV (23.6% → 31.4%) +0.0pp Hybrid (0.0% → 0.0%) −7.8pp ICE (76.4% → 68.6%) If the changes from the last 6 months continued linearly, BEV would become the largest powertrain in 2028-08.
This segment is tiny and volatile (total volumes are only a couple hundred trucks a month), so it's surprising how little this transition jumps around. But the direction is clear.
Heavy Duty Vehicles crossed the 50% BEV mark, 50.2% in September. Record in absolute numbers too, 101 BEV, the most ever in one month.
🇩🇰 Denmark (HDV) - September 26 - BEV Trajectory
50.2% BEV
0.0% PHEV
49.8% ICE
Trailing 12 months are:
31.4% BEV
0.0% PHEV
68.6% ICE
Graphs are available in the Gallery: https://leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery/
In September BEV 13289 PHEV 8 Petrol 275 Diesel 83 Total 13655
Industry is simply still a bit behind Private, but closing the gap fast.
Graphs are available in the Gallery: https://leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery/