Was about to contest my 5.5 year old’s assertion that “the cows with the brown spots” make chocolate milk, then came to my senses

Any day with a Steller’s Jay is a good day

(Yes I know this is the Onion but I couldn’t resist the joke)

Setting aside everything else… given the setup, I actually expected the vampire game index the author came up with to have some correlation with the business cycle… but it didn’t…

Are 2-axis charts our most controversial dual-use visualization technology?

tldr, if the labor market keeps getting stronger, hiring will rise more than it has already... but it will need to get MUCH stronger (cue Fed cringe gif) to result in late 2010s hiring volume... and forget about returning to the Great Resignation

Also, while hiring is very low (using the 2010s as a benchmark) relative to unemployment... Taking that shortfall as a given, we've seen about as much improvement in hiring as you'd expect given a small improvement in the unemployment

I occasionally see the question "why hasn't hiring picked up more given the increase in job openings" but the very small increase in hiring we've seen is consistent with the concurrent small increase in job openings

Like many Bay Area remote workers, I commuted into the City*** today ***Redwood City

I've been talking a lot about labor market data that looks stronger in September and early October; headcount actions from the Business Trends & Outlook Survey (BTOS) are an exception Recent headcount actions less expansionary than a year earlier for the 1st time since late Feb

Another data point suggesting September's renewed labor market strength (not apparent in the jobs report!) has continued into early October

3/ The recent improvement in continuing claims suggests we should expect further small declines in unemployment due to permanent layoff in the next few months

2/ Continuing claims also noticeably lower than they were 4 weeks ago. After the late spring / early summer pause, the labor market is getting stronger again.

Claims: 1/ Initial claims below 200K for the 4th consecutive week.

Yesterday when it was time to go to bed my kindergartner sadly exclaimed, “But I love homework!”

Assuming you are talking about the October jobs report, it comes out 3 days after the midterms But the upbeat labor market data I’m talking about has already dropped, and has been dropping for a ~month

Pink Floyd was great from 1967 to 1975. I find the Wall to be mostly unlistenable these days 🤷‍♂️