@bmcnoldy.bsky.social
Univ. of Miami hurricane researcher 🌀 living in New Mexico 🏜.
Husband and dog dad. 🏳️🌈
https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialGood question... it certainly could reinforce the usual "cool" relationship. The "wet" part of the relationship comes about through the location of the subtropical jet stream.
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialThe detached anticyclonic warm eddy that had been present for months northwest of the Loop Current is still there, but a zombie of what it was a week ago since Isaias passed over it. It's too late in the season to recover anywhere close to average.
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialThe ocean heat content averaged over the Gulf of Mexico has been below average since June, but Isaias really zapped it and the values are plummeting...
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialBased on the operational size & intensity estimates of Hurricane #Isaias, here is my swath of sustained wind speed at the surface. This takes land use and roughness into account (which the NHC's wind swath product does not).
The wind speed contours are simply categorized by the Saffir-Simpson scale.
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialYep
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialYou too?? 😉
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialOFCL: National Hurricane Center GDMI: Google Deepmind ensemble mean HCCA: HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach TVCN: Track Variable Consensus
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialHere's a beautiful huge sample size (thanks El Nino) of track and intensity verification stats for the East and Central Pacific hurricane seasons so far this year. Again, these are preliminary and some storms are still in progress, so this is as of Sunday afternoon. Some key acronyms:
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialWhat I didn't have the characters for was to explain the model acronyms. The Google Deepmind model is GDMI on there, and the National Hurricane Center is OFCL on there.
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialHurricane Isaias' eventual landfall location was inside of all 13 track forecast cones issued by the National Hurricane Center from formation through landfall. 🧐
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialPreliminary track verification statistics for #Isaias show that the Google Deepmind model dominated the model guidance by a huge margin. The National Hurricane Center closely and wisely followed it. Details at bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2026/10/isai...
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialFrom Thursday morning through Friday morning, #Isaias rapidly intensified and became the first major hurricane of the season. Then just as it was approaching the coastline on Friday night, it weakened slightly to a 90-knot Category 2 hurricane.
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialDon't forget about the HTI graphics for #Isaias...
bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2026/10/inte...
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialNot only was #Isaias the first hurricane of the season, it will also likely be the first major hurricane soon.
bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2026/10/inte...
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialAnother update to this figure... showing all 11 track forecast cones for #Isaias as of Friday morning. There's a very focused 75-mile stretch of coastline that has been inside every cone so far. Landfall will be very near Pensacola FL around midnight tonight.
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialThrough the first eight advisories for #Isaias, the length of coastline contained within all eight track forecast cones is 120 miles. The forecasts have been very steady. Landfall is Friday evening.
@bmcnoldy.bsky.social1980 is widely considered to be the start of reliable tropical cyclone data worldwide. ACE is not trending upward even with a good period of record.
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialOh, you're referring to interannually! Sort of, but it's not *entirely* due to activity, it's partly due to better observations!
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialA bit of a bump... I have that at the end of yesterday's blog post:
bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2026/10/trop...
@bmcnoldy.bsky.socialThere's occasionally talk of moving the start date of the Atlantic hurricane season earlier. If anything, the date of the first hurricane formation is trending later!
