The catalyst for last year's massive rally in gold was Jay Powell's dovish keynote at Jackson Hole on Aug. 22. The rate cuts that followed looked like the Fed was giving in to Trump, since inflation was still far above target. Today's live stream on gold:
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/will-gold-...

The peak of the Euro zone debt crisis in 2011/12 saw massive deposit flight from high-debt countries like Greece. All this stuff - the doom loop - got papered over by Draghi's "whatever it takes," but it never went away. We could be back to this quickly...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/bank-depos...

Iran is in a desperate struggle to reassert some control over the Strait of Hormuz. That's what recent attacks on tankers are about. This is a sign of weakness. The regime has its back against the wall. Iran's economy is falling apart. This is the end game.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

The Brazilian Real is currently much stronger than it appears at first glance. That's because the Dollar is massively bid at the moment, so the fact that the Real has managed to strengthen - even as the rest of EM is tumbling - is a sign of real strength...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-the-br...

I did yesterday's live stream on bond market flows, i.e. who's buying and selling. There's been a lot of chatter that Japanese investors have been dumping French debt, but there's no sign of that in data through August when the spike in yields got started...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/are-japane...

The Dollar versus the G10 (blue) is at its strongest level since "Liberation Day" in April 2025. That's mostly about the US being the cleanest shirt in the closet when it comes to fiscal policy. Fiscal policy is bad everywhere, but it's worst in Europe...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-the-us...

I'm doing my usual Sunday morning live stream today at 9:30 am (ET). I'll do a full markets round-up and will touch on everything from Fed hikes that are now priced to the yield curve, the strong Dollar and what all this boils down to for gold. Join on link below:
open.substack.com/live-stream/...

Gold is flat this year after last year's 65% rise. The catalyst for last year's rise was Fed cuts even as inflation was significantly above target. There's no way the Fed hikes as much as is priced, but we're a ways from cuts. Those will come in 2027...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/will-gold-...

I'm doing my usual Sunday morning live stream at 9:30 am (ET) tomorrow. I'll talk about what drove the massive run-up in gold in 2025 and what it'll take for gold to boom like that again. The reasons for gold to stage another rally are building...
open.substack.com/live-stream/...

On this morning's live stream, I talked about bond market flows and whether it's a hedge fund blow-up or Japanese investors pulling back that are driving the rise in French yields. It's neither. Instead, it's France's totally unsustainable fiscal policy...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/are-japane...

The Brazilian Real has settled below $/BRL 5.00. My expectation is for it to go to 4.80 if Bolsonaro wins the second round vote on October 25. There's still lots of wood to chop in terms of the undervaluation of the Real. We'll end up going below 4.50...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-much-c...

Turkey gets 7 million Russian visitors per year. We don't know what's going on in Russia, but if the plague is serious and gets out, Turkey is at risk of being a primary node for global transmission. Thailand is another place with tons of Russian tourism...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-the-ru...

There's a guessing game right now how the ECB can possibly intervene to cap yields with spreads that are still tight. That misses the forest for the trees. In 2022, the ECB just introduced a new tool to intervene. The only rule is that there are no rules...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-never-...

If the ECB ends up intervening to cap yields - which of course it will - it has to explain what exactly the market dysfunction is that it's fixing. So far, high-debt countries have been hit hardest. That's not market dysfunction. That's totally rational...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/roadmap-fo...

Japan has great data on what its investors are doing overseas. They haven't been selling France in data through August, which is when that bond sell-off began. There may be individual asset managers scaling back, but in aggregate this rounds down to zero...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/whos-selli...

I'm doing my usual Saturday morning live stream today at 9:30 am (ET). When bond markets blow up, there's always finger-pointing at individual investors. The truth is that responsibility lies with the countries getting hit. Quit whining and get your house in order.
open.substack.com/live-stream/...

French bond yields have been going vertical since early August. In August, the excuse was thin liquidity. Then it was stories about individual hedge funds blowing up and Japanese asset managers selling. These are just excuses. France has itself to blame...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/whos-selli...

I'm doing my usual Saturday morning live stream at 9:30 am (ET) tomorrow. I'll talk about whether the sell-off in French government bonds is linked to Japanese investors pulling back and the unwind of the Yen carry trade. Flows data do NOT show this...
open.substack.com/live-stream/...

There's lots of talk Japanese investors have been selling French debt and are behind the rise in French yields. There's no evidence of that. Japan did sell French debt, but that was in 2024. There's no big selling that's been happening recently...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-the-yen...