Average Labour lead now almost 5 points ahead of Reform....

Opinium/Observer (7th-9th October fieldwork) has these party standings + leader approval results. 🌹 LAB 29% (-1) ➡️ REF 23% (-2) 🌳 CON 20% (+3) 🌍 GRN 9% (-2) 🔶 LD 9% (n/c) 🌹 Burnham +8 (n/c) 🌳 Badenoch 0 (n/c) 🔶 Davey -6 (n/c) ➡️ Farage -26 (-4) 🌍 Polanski -29 (-7)

Thoughts on Holborn & St P: Not ideal Green territory. May's locals were a Labour-Green toss-up here, so with Labour's position improving under Burnham, a fairly comfortable hold was to be expected. But it means that in the places where the Greens actually beat Labour in May, they remain a threat.

I don't think you need me to invite you :) depending on the conference!

Anand and UKICE have done remarkable work and made a huge contribution to public life. I'm not sure how he has found the energy to keep going, or the character to avoid going as mad as British politics. Proud to call Anand a friend and look forward to what comes next.

Now I have to say nice things twice - asking a bit much!

Honestly love every detail here

oh my god I was going to joke "he's actually centre-left" and turns out he IS

Binface?

I think it leads some people to assume you can simply reallocate voters within the bloc when I don’t think that’s entirely true (there are interdependencies of course).

Thank you for your feedback Mar Pac

Dozens of local Facebook uncles are in the comments talking about burqas and two-tier justice. We may all have our own views on the policy, but what do these people want? It's a Reform council attempting to deal with an issue in a back-to-basics-no-nonsense style and they still aren't happy.

For example, there are a portion of Reform voters who are simply never going to vote for the Conservatives, and some Greens who will never vote Labour.

All parties face the challenge of keeping “cross-pressured” voters on board. Importantly, analysis should never simply reallocate voters from one party on the left or right to other parties in the same bloc.

The Greens have to balance a coalition of their newer radical left and more longstanding socially liberal voters who are more interested in environmental issues than foreign policy.

Labour, while bouncing back under Burnham, still have to perform the balancing act of securing support of voters who have switched to the Greens (and Lib Dems) but also can't ignore the threat from Reform and voters concerned about more socially conservative issues.

Reform/Nigel Farage are highly polarising, so as long as he is leader will likely sustain a fair level of support but also turn off a large number of voters. The Conservatives are still suffering from damage to their reputation in government and are just not trusted by many Reform-friendly voters.

The 'bloc politics' idea has been useful in thinking about British politics lately but it tends to distract from the pretty clear ceilings on support for each of the parties...

Can't believe Donald Trump missed out on the Nobel Peace Prize again. There's always next year, I guess...