EconReporter

@econreporter.bsky.social

Independent journalist focusing on economics and global economy

Our website: en.econreporter.com

@michaelsderby.bsky.socialReposted by @econreporter.bsky.social

Federal Reserve research argues Treasury bond safe haven status gets complicated in higher inflation environment, says "if inflationary pressures abate and the frequency of adverse supply shocks declines, bonds' hedging property is likely to improve."

Our analysis shows that government bonds' hedging property depends critically on the inflation environment and the types of economic shocks hitting the economy. When inflationary pressures are limited and inflation expectations are well-anchored, bonds provide reliable hedging because central banks can ease in response to both adverse demand and supply shocks that weigh on stocks. This was the typical experience during the GFC and its aftermath, which solidified bonds' safe-haven role. However, when inflationary pressures build up, such as following the Covid pandemic, the required monetary policy response changes; central banks must balance supporting real activity against their price stability objectives, which breaks the traditional flight-to-quality dynamics. In addition, adverse supply shocks may lead investors to expect tighter monetary policy as central banks seek to keep inflation expectations stable. The result is again a deterioration in bonds' hedging property. Our analysis of historical evolution of stock-bond correlations in relation to inflation regimes and different responses of asset prices to inflation news over time support these conjectures. The post 2021 deterioration in bonds' hedging property largely reflects this shift in the economic environment, not necessarily a fundamental change in bond characteristics. If inflationary pressures abate and the frequency of adverse supply shocks declines, bonds' hedging property is likely to improve.
@michaelcaley.bsky.socialReposted by @econreporter.bsky.social

the venn diagram of bsky users who get insanely mad when someone mentions using claude and bsky users who fell for this fake is a circle isn't it

Owen From Ohio@owenfromohio.bsky.social
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@buffer.comReposted by @econreporter.bsky.social

We’re hosting a live walkthrough of Buffer Insights on Monday, October 19 at 12pm ET. Darcy and Kelly from our Customer Advocacy team will show you around and answer your questions live. 🔥

🔗 Register here: buffer.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Alt text: Graphic for Buffer Live, “Buffer Insights: See What’s Working Across Your Channels,” a feature walkthrough and Q&A on October 19 at 12pm ET with Darcy Peters and Kelly Vass, next to a bar chart from the Insights dashboard.
@en.afp.comReposted by @econreporter.bsky.social

BREAKING White House official confirms Press Secretary Katie Zacharia leaving after only a few days on the job

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@eridyn.bsky.socialReposted by @econreporter.bsky.social

I keep thinking back to two sets of papers I read for undergraduate research projects, one reviewing the forecast methods actually used in businesses and state and local governments and the other set on the accuracy of different forecasts... I wish my memory was good enough to find those again

@erikamcentarfer.bsky.socialReposted by @econreporter.bsky.social

Earlier in my career, I spent a lot of time using the latest methods to improve an imputation or forecast, only to run a race between the improved method and the simple model it replaced and find that a simple model is actually pretty hard to beat. What are others' experiences here?

Nick Timiraos@nicktimiraos.bsky.social

Warsh says AI is going to "fundamentally change the conduct of monetary policy" by improving forecasts. "We torture data with old-fashioned models to try to find out what's underlying inflation trends. Not so long from now, it won't be torture."

@bsky.appReposted by @econreporter.bsky.social

v1.135 is live! You can now browse quote posts by Top in addition to Latest. And posts keep their thread numbering when quoted. These changes are rolling out now. If you don’t see them yet, try refreshing your browser or visiting the app store to make sure you’ve updated to the latest version.

@nicktimiraos.bsky.socialReposted by @econreporter.bsky.social

Several Fed officials this week echoed the view several others expressed two weeks ago that rate increases at consecutive policy meetings needn't be a base case. With expectations thusly lined up for the Fed to hold steady in October, Warsh did not go out of his way to boost them Friday

@iankmsmith.ft.comReposted by @econreporter.bsky.social

is anyone else finding this place increasingly livelier? it's quite fun and useful for a place that constantly gets its last rites

@econreporter.bsky.social

What is happening....

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Ben Winkley@benwinkley.bsky.social

Ice Brent on course for the highest settlement since mid-May. No clear driver of today's 3pc rise, other than all *the stuff*

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