Latest episode of Opinion Brief Podcast out now 🌹 Britons’ hopes from Burnham 🏋️ What is a politics of trying? 🥵 Do heatwaves affect public opinion on climate? Listen here tr.ee/KasOq-wGy2

There was a by election and general election in the same year.

Wider context to the Holborn result: this chart shows the proportion of Labour’s 2024 vote going to different parties. Post Gorton over 1 in 10 Labour 24 voters were going to the Greens - that number has more than halved as Labour’s retention improved, particularly on the left.

Obviously not helped by the fact he is in self imposed exile. But Holborn was George Galloway’s worst ever result in a Westminster election.

Seems surprising more Conservatives didn’t tactically vote Labour given this was clearly a two horse race (though maybe many did vs locals). Obviously this wasn’t a race that was about the battle for the right but the Tories will be pleased to have come third, and continue to do better in London.

Compared to the local elections in May, where Greens/CPA had a pact the Labour vote is up and the Green vote is down. Right vote and Liberal Democrat vote down.

This perhaps captures how Greens momentum has dipped. The swing to the Greens in Holborn was less than half that in Gorton and Denton at 13% and if you were to include Feinstein voters in the Green column the swing is just 4.

3000+ majority for Labour, comfortable and a sign of Burnham’s gains on the left. Labour vote barely drops. Green vote significantly up from 2024, but less impressive if you assume lots of Feinstein 2024 voters went to the Greens. Bad result for the Greens but not at worst end

Kemi Badenoch wants a left-right argument about the economy. She sees an opportunity on identity "against the identity politics of the left and the right" to oppose ethno-nationalism on the right, with a conservative case for high expectations on integration that migrants + minorities can pass

Think that’s the toughest I’ve seen Tory leadership on Reform since their emergence as a serious political force, directly taking on claims about Englishness and identity from some Reform politicians. Feels a significant change in approach.

Burnham has a large lead on preferred Prime Minister. 30% name Burnham as their preferred PM, compared to 22% for “none of them”, 15% for Badenoch, and 14% for Farage.

Burnham’s gross approval has reached a record, at 43%, with 27% disapproving. Badenoch is at 33% followed by Farage at 28%, Davey at 19%, Polanski at 16%, and Lowe at 15%. This is the largest gap between Badenoch’s personal approval ratings, and Conservative poll ratings, we have recorded.

Burnham receives a 5 point boost to his approval ratings to +16, Badenoch rises by two +2, Ed Davey is down two to -10, Lowe falls by 4 to hit a low of -15, Nigel Farage is steady at -24 and Polanski falls 4 to -28.

Labour has hit their highest since Burnham became PM, and are now more than ten points higher than their trough under Keir Starmer. Burnham is squeezing the left, as the Liberal Democrats also fall to their joint lowest this parliament. Most field work pre Tory conference.

In our latest voting intention, Labour hit 29% their highest since 2024, Reform move to 2nd & Greens fall to lowest since August 2025 🌹 LAB 29% (+2) ⏩ REF 24% (+3) 🌳 CON 21% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟢 GREEN 7% (-2) ⚫ RES: 4% (-2) N 2,088 | Dates 3-5/10 | Change w 29/09

As during the 2019-24 period, it is worth keeping in mind *where* focus groups are sampled from. 2024 Labour voters *should* be positive about the party/PM - even if they have drifted away since the election... this sort of discussion should only partially reassure Labour.

Challenge for Tory conference in one graph. This year has seen the Tory leader significantly improve her public perception - having trailed last year Badenoch is now much more popular than her party. But Tory voting intention is only v.marginally up. Can she drag up that navy blue line?

Overall, it's clear the PM has had a compelling start, is rebuilding Labour's coalition and he has earned his party a rehearing. But it would be complacent to assume the battle for public opinion is done and the PM will have to move into salesman mode in the Autumn.

On Europe again the group agreed with the PM's central argument that Brexit hadn't worked and for most if we could go back in on 2016 terms they'd jump at it. The worries however were that we'd get a bad deal and that made more of the group nervous

Paul Johnson's argument the lock won't pay for care elicited real resistance. Despite this being a group of Labour voters none were prepared to pay more tax for social care and felt too squeezed already and there were worries about the Budget (though there was openness on a hypothecated defence tax)

It made me think the battle for public opinion on this isn't over - presented on Burnham's terms people buy the need for reform, but if it's defined by opponents the mood shifts.