While a lot is being said about a potential deal for Russia to supply more diesel, it may be difficult to achieve. The psychological impact may reduce prices temporarily but it’ll take more time to determine if Russia has such ability. Some impact short term, perhaps 10-20c/gal.

Isaias has reached category 3 status, and two refineries are at some risk of flooding. For now, fuel prices in Gulf states may be impacted a few cents per gallon but we’ll have to await any potential damages to see if the impact increases.

new update: with Hurricane Isaias moving toward the U.S., 32.6% of Gulf platforms have been evacuated, with 62.9% of oil production shut down and 57.4% of natural gas production shut down. Once the storm passes, production should resume significantly by early next week.

apparently they're using over $1b from surplus... not sure how wise that is

(being in IL if the property taxes were suspended maybe home prices would surge! oh well, wishful thinking.)

seeing a lot of comments, so responding. if you're in a state that suspended/paused fuel taxes, it does not mean that it stops markets from moving. if property taxes were suspended doesn't mean your home's value stops moving.

ML?

Ukraine hits the Omsk refinery overnight, 2,500km from the Russian border. Ukraine hit this refinery previously in July, damaging units and pushing it offline.

normally, the numbers make sense- this time around- this doesn't jive. but when you're offering 50c/gal discounts on gas on two days close to today's date...

oil prices jumping this morning after several explosions were heard in the Saudi capital, including at Riyadh's airport... WTI up $4/bbl Brent up nearly $5/bbl, with gasoline and diesel futures also rising sharply

in addition, intensity forecasts have moved slightly lower printing a high category one or low category two on landfall.

Hurricane Isaias appears to be maneuvering *away* from having impact on refineries in Louisiana. Rainfall expectations are being reduced and windspeeds look low. The risk to fuel prices being impacted *from this storm* are low at this time. Good news for refiners.

TS Isaias models pushing it a little bit easterly- models reducing the rainfall expectations for Louisiana, reducing the potential impacts to some large refineries- for now. Models can change, but last updates are slightly less concerning from price impact perspective.

a sudden upward jump in wholesale gas prices yesterday and again in the Great Lakes coupled with rapid decreases in gas prices in Ohio means there could be a price cycle in OH and IN soon. MI still has room to drop. IL and WI are 50/50.

Aug 2026 vs Aug 2025 was down 0.6% or 1.8 million miles lower, but including seasonally adjusting, VMTs were up 0.4% from Aug 2025.

BREAKING: US FWA shows August VMTs (vehicle miles traveled) down 0.6% nationally, down in every region, likely impacted by high fuel prices and economic shifts

update- this is more a signal of weakening demand potentially, due in part to high price