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Bill Connelly

@espnbillc.bsky.social

692 Following35.3k Followers

ESPN writer, professional nerd. SP+. Author of three books (Study Hall, 50 Best* and Forward Progress). College football, soccer, tennis. Puma addiction.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BKvo23DyGppxvRifqFgwkUoflPLQX5wabjUDIV4qUZA/edit?usp=sharing

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@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 7:50 PM

I post the results every week and constantly post links to the spreadsheet that houses all results.

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 6:51 PM

Me and Jon Hamm will love it.

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 5:44 PM

Opponent adjustments were a little kinder, but that was mostly just due to other teams' movement around them.

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 5:38 PM

I would assume its pretty incredible performance at the moment was reason enough to pay attention to it, but sorry for shrugging my shoulders.

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 4:18 PM

Pretty funky, but their rating moved up. Others' moved up more, apparently.

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 3:57 PM

WEEK 7 SP+ RANKINGS

* Dawgs and Buckeyes keep trading the top spot
* Texas moves up because SP+ is antisocial
* Big 12: three of the top 11
* Résumé SP+ top 5: ND, UGA, Miami, Bama, Hoohoohoosiers
* HELLO there, Northwestern and Okie State (and goodbye, Pitt and FSU)

www.espn.com/college-foot...

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 11:53 AM

REALLY conflicting set of stats. Bama had a slight success rate advantage and better expected TOs, but UGA had far more explosiveness and better other stuff.

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 11:40 AM

LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WK6:
OU > Texas 7.0%
Wyo > SJSU 21.2%
JMU > GS 22.1%
Boise > Fresno 22.3%
USA > Ark St 29.0%
EMU > Akron 30.3%
ILL > Mich St 30.6%
Kentucky > LSU 34.7%
Coastal > Marshall 35.6%
Jax St > KSU 42.3%
UNLV > NDSU 43.0%

ALL GAMES: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 4:26 AM

You mean recovering all 5 of a game's fumbles (especially when 4 are yours) is luck in some way?

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 12:54 AM

SEVENTY-SIX RUSHES

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 12:07 PMReposted by @espnbillc.bsky.social

* Helmet games and downpours
* Arch's stats fell off quickly
* Prove it, UCLA and Nebraska
* Half-challenges for BYU/Utah
* Big road trips for the Bison/Broncos
* Chaos superfecta! Playlist! SEC Main Character Curse! THE BATTLE FOR THE LITTLE BRASS BELL!

WEEK 6 PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 8:42 PM

This is the first playoff idea I've ever hated, and that feels meaningful (to me). But yes, before we skew too far in that direction, you're right--the regular season can still be super meaningful without teams feeling like their season's over in Week 2. I've loved the balance of 12 in that regard.

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 8:38 PM

can I doom about a 24-teamer, at least?

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 1:14 PM

I figured like 3 people would appreciate it, but I was one of them, therefore I did it.

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 12:07 PM

* Helmet games and downpours
* Arch's stats fell off quickly
* Prove it, UCLA and Nebraska
* Half-challenges for BYU/Utah
* Big road trips for the Bison/Broncos
* Chaos superfecta! Playlist! SEC Main Character Curse! THE BATTLE FOR THE LITTLE BRASS BELL!

WEEK 6 PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 2:19 PM

DEJUAN BLAIR

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 12:31 PM

Also, it’ll take about one year for that to become “round of 16 or bust.”

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 5:44 PM

The worst ones never reveal who they root for. They just need you to know you’re a terrible human being and you’ll get what’s coming to you one day.

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 4:56 PM

It is a guess based on years of experience, lol.

@espnbillc.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 4:05 PM

Yeah, in order my guesses would be hotmail, aol, yahoo.

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