That's true but its also complicated. Buick gear shift doesn't work in BMW but might in KAZ if you really really wanted to

Hence the part that sending them to the wider world will be Kremlin policy. The kind where you really want to 'volunteer' for it

It’s a dangerous feedback loop: a state built on perpetual conflict feeding a global market of permanent violence. Once you open Pandora's box of industrialized mercenary warfare, you can't just close it when the war ends. Thoughts? 🌐🔄

The long-term consequence? russia is cultivating a privatized, globe-spanning legion of kinetic actors who answer as much to profit, resource cartels, and criminal syndicates as they do to Moscow, weaving the Kremlin's foreign policy deep into the global underworld.

By conveniently brushing aside the catastrophic domestic PTSD crisis, the russian state ensures these men remain operational assets rather than social liabilities. Out of sight, out of mind as long as their guns are pointed outward and serving broader geopolitical leverage.

Think about the convergence: a globalized underworld looking for elite operational expertise (drones, counter-intelligence, heavy weapons handling) and a vast pool of veterans conditioned to look past ethical boundaries for a paycheck.

Beyond direct state proxies, there’s a shadow economy at play. Modern conflict requires muscle, logistics, and security. We are increasingly seeing veterans and the logistical networks intersecting with global transnational crime, including cartels and illicit resource extraction.

By funneling these surplus fighters into international deployments, the Kremlin achieves two things: it keeps potential domestic unrest at bay and maintains a network of boots on the ground in strategic flashpoints across Africa, the Middle East, and beyond.

Domestically, this solves a massive economic and social pressure valve. russia faces severe labor shortages, but men returning from the trenches with specialized combat skills and often severe trauma frequently struggle to reintegrate into traditional civilian life.

What’s changed is the volume and the institutional normalization. Through PMCs like Wagner, the Africa Corps, and newer spin-off structures, the russian state has institutionalized mercenary work as a legitimate career path for returning soldiers.

This isn't entirely new. russia has a deep historical precedent for off-the-books projection of force. From Soviet "advisors" in the Cold War to the rise of the Wagner Group, Moscow has long used deniable proxies to project power without committing regular troops.

The sheer scale of russia’s war in Ukraine has created a massive, permanent byproduct: hundreds of thousands of battle-hardened veterans. But as the frontlines grind on, a darker global trend is emerging, these men, and the infrastructure behind them, are becoming a permanent export. 🧵

Little Marco also had a plan

While not confirmed anywhere, this is my greatest concern. Thats a real thing Trump can do that would have a considerable effect. With caveat, much of this wouldn't be fast and US elections are weeks away.

This is not how anything works tho

P.S not too distant future the market will be FLOODED with merks, a lot of them russians and we are not prepared. I'm 100% sure that making russian soldiers PTSD a worlds problem will be Kremlin’s official policy

Look at the graph of US support for Ukraine, and how it disappeared when Trump entered his second term. The Russia hoax was never a hoax

Hormuz is offcourse not closed and did 16mil per day during September (its tad lower now) but otherwise you might be towards correct path

Estonia gains battle-tested weapons, and Ukraine gains additional funding for its defense. We agreed that our teams will move quickly to put together such an export package. I am also grateful to Estonia for its steadfast support for Ukraine on our path to joining the EU."