... the impacts of higher mortgage rates, oil & energy prices (again), since September, have not fed through to house building demand & costs yet & will mainly hit volumes of house building activity in 2027 H1. (22/end)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

... in terms of negative risks, we have had 6 unexpected major disruptions since 2020 & that may now be the 'new normal' but forecasts clearly can't take account of these unexpected, unpredicatable events. More specifically on housing,... (21/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

In terms of risks, if 'Your First Home' causes a sharp increase in effective demand & the SAHP finance comes through early for partnerships, housing associations & councils then house building in 2027 may be better than expected. But,... (20/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

Overall, we expect total house building output to fall 9.1% in 2026 (unsurprisingly given output year-to-date is already 7.8% lower than a year ago) & then remain broadly flat (+0.4%) in 2027, although clearly there are big risks to the forecast for next year. (19/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

And, simultaneously, housing associations & councils remain primarily focused on issues with their existing stock (basic living conditions & fire safety remediation). Their focus isn’t on taking on Section 106 homes from private developers or new build themselves. (18/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

..., which started in April, £10 billion has been allocated but we are still only expecting significant activity from it down on the ground in 2027 H1 at the earliest as government programmes persistently take a very long time to get going. (17/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

In public housing, the old Affordable Homes Programme finished in March but activity from it still continues, at a rapidly slowing rate, whilst under the new the Social and Affordable Homes Programme (SAHP)... (16/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

... the volume of public house building activity in August 2026 was 1.9% lower than in July, 8.7% lower than a year earlier & year-to-date (January-August), activity in 2026 was 5.9% lower than in 2025. (15/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

In public house building activity, just be careful using the time series as the ONS has a structural break data problem in the data from January 2022 (where the level of activity essentially doubles). However,... (14/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

5) SME house builders are disproportionately affected & affected earlier, by affordability issues, all the cost rises, site viability issues & local planning problems & many SME house builders have been affected more than the major house builders. (13/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

4) In London, affordability is a key problem but site viability, late stage viability reviews, Building Safety Regulator delays at Gateway 2 & 3 Stage, concerns about leasehold & service charges (as most London house building is flats) are all issues for developers. (12/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

3) Build to Rent investment remains high & previously drove new build but is increasingly now mopping up excess house builder stock rather than driving new build, especially given the rise in both the construction & financing costs. (11/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

According to the HBF, the cost of building a low-rise house has risen £76,000 in the last 5 years & it has risen £98,000 for a new home in a high-rise development, the difference being due to the government's 2nd staircase requirement. (10/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
www.hbf.co.uk/documents/15...

... the main reason site viability is still the key problem in cheaper areas, is due to all of government's extra costs on house building, the most recent of which was in October & there are extra government costs on house building coming in March 2027. (9/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

2) Site viability is still the key problem in cheaper areas, partly due to construction product price rises after spikes in energy & commodities in 2022 & in oil & energy costs in 2026 (Spring & September's spikes are still feeding through & will be into 2027) but... (8/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

A list of the key issues facing house building:

1) Affordability is still the key issue in more expensive areas. Government's ‘Your First Home’ may help deposits for some, depending on price & income caps, but the effect of higher mortgage rates may offset this. (7/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

Year-to-date, private house building activity (which is over 80% of total house building) in 2026 was 5.9% lower than a year ago & I hate to use the term, but it's currently a 'perfect storm' for house builders given the raft of issues currently facing them. (6/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

Looking at the breakdown of total house building, the volume of private house building activity in August was 1.9% lower than in July, 8.7% lower than a year ago, 25.5% lower than in January 2020, pre-pandemic, & 29.5% lower than at the recent peak in 2022. (5/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

Year-to-date (January to August), the volume of house building activity in 2026 was already 7.8% lower than in 2025 & the Middle East conflict (& its re-emergence in September) driven rises in costs & mortgage rates impact is expected to peak in 2026 Q4 & 2027 Q1. (4/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

August 2026's fall in house building activity was technically a 3rd successive fall but in practical terms, house building activity has broadly been on a downward trend for almost 4 years, since October 2022 & August's fall just continues it. (3/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction