Latent class analysis is astrology for scientists
#statsky

Did the law just widen what counts as felony assault? It has, more than once: strangulation has had its own felony code since 2010. Leave strangulation out, and 2025 still tops every year back to 2001.

How we measured it: sparkydata.dev/articles/fewer-s… 📊 #statsky

Statistical friends, imagine you had data on the association betwen two continuous variables across a number of different settings

Slope levels off at some point

What would the best approach to testing whether the inflection point differed between settings?

#statsky

Is causality enough to take AI to the next level?

And why do today's models fall so easily into a correlational black hole?

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We just sent today's issue of Causal Python Bi-Weekly.

Here's what's inside:

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You can see me here citing Sam Altman's 2024 prediction about 1-person $1 billion companies created using AI.

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400+ nodes and 1500+ edges

And 11 different ways people at NASA referred to changes in gravitational force

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Maybe a hot take, but IMO the best thing about propensity scoring is that it makes clear how absurdly difficult it is to reduce complex patients/clinician+patient interactions down to a handful of variables. It virtually always obviates some missing and/or irreducible context.

#statsky #episky

I am here for this sort of content. #statsky

interesting, working my way through it
wonder why they did not user more recent data than 2020&2022

seems also quite obvious(?) that divisive issues are more risky for politicians, particularly in election cycles to maybe take on as it can alienate potential voters.

#statsky @gelliottmorris.com

Our new episode with Robert J. Reynolds is out now!

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Applied #statsky and health #econsky friends: any good methods-focused conferences you recommend? I am feeling a little deflated by how little my peers in health economics care about methods. Extra points if there is a focus on Bayes, prediction, and decision theory. I'm in Singapore but can travel!

Last week I went to New York to talk to Robert J. Reynolds, PhD, for a new podcast series with @sobor.bsky.social and UBC.

Rob had quite a story to tell about his work with causal models at NASA.

#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky

We just sent today's issue of Causal Python Bi-Weekly.

Here's what's inside:

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#CausalSky #StatSky #EconSky #EpiSky #MLSky

A lot of bullshit research gets a pass under "exploratory" work. Fishing for p-values is just exploring how to cook the books for your next study. What are some good, actually principled, exploratory stats/Econ methods? #statsky

I'm in NYC to record a couple of new episodes of the #CausalBanditsPodcast

What questions should I ask Elias Bareinboim and Robert J. Reynolds?

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AI assistants can convince us to make bad decisions while we keep believing they were helpful.

And it's a significant problem in statistics, causal analysis, and research.

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We must pace the frontier of logistic regression. It is too powerful, and the risk to humanity of incorrect interpretations of odds ratios is an existential threat
#statsky #ai

Peeking at A/B tests?

Does the stopping rule actually matter?

In today's issue of Causal Python Weekly:

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"AGI has arrived"

(But not for the first time)

#CausalSky #AISky #MLSky #StatSky