Poker taught me to think in probabilities, embrace uncertainty, and focus on EV. Investing rewards the same mindset. If you want to improve your returns, improve your decision-making process. $SPY #Investing #Probabilities #DecisionMaking

https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/poker-investing-strategies

#Technology #Bullshit: "This question has a precedent in debates over nuclear risk, where #experts have struggled with whether or how to assign #probabilities to rare, contingent, or unprecedented events. #AI presents an even more vexing problem." thebulletin.org/2026/10/ai-d...

Here are considerations for statisticians and scientists, about system thinking and onboarding context 🧵

#liveability #inference #modeling #modelling #complexity #systems #generalization #statistics #models #ML #evolvability #doubleDescent #overfitting #stats #probabilities #feedback

"Mediators, confounders, colliders – a crash course in causal inference", by @florianhartig.bsky.social (2019): theoreticalecology.wordpress.com/2019/04/14/m... 🧵

#policy #intervention #graphs #causality #causalInference #stats #statistics #counterFactuals #probabilities #ecology #confounding

When life is a game of chance, anything can happen.

#indieauthor #againsttheodds #probabilities #dice #romantacy

- Guess', this would be worth for to read. 'Though, I didn't have time, (yet).
#ecosystems #collapse #risks #climate ; #global #warming ; #arctic #winters #summers #species #adaptation ; #extinction #risk #probabilities ; #change #foreseen #futures #chances
;
www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Wordle prompted doodle
#Wordle #wager #probabilities