The core of stronger winds look's to remain to the west, & sink S-ward-but winds of 50-75 k/h are expected-higher gust near the L. lakes. looks reasonable based on the tightening isobaric field (lines). My scale starts at 30knots & up (~55k/h+) 1knot=~2k/hr. #onwx #onstorm

Latest 0Z HRRR run-Radar 4cast (P-type) ~now till Sat. 8PM -shot of cold air & colder windy conditions once the Low passes SONT into QUE. Notable things- limited Lake Effect streamers in NONT off the many larger inland lakes-and some off lake flurries near G. Bay #onwx #onstorm

Current max wind reports (in mph-colour scale at top) from various wx stations and wind analysis (the colour fill) till 9:30 PM EDT. (30mph=~48k/hr., 40mph=~64 k/h 50mph=~80k/h. #onwx #onstorm

Latest Radar +Satellite (Airmass channel) loop at this hour. Deepening Low over IL continues it trek towards SONT-expect shower/periods of rain/risk of storms in the overnight #onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario
Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations.
A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None
#onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario
Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations.
A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None
#onwx #onstorm

Latest HRRR hourly run - Radar 4cast- for the day till Midnight. Advancing cloud shield. and rain enters SWONT and the west late afternoon into the overnight. Good risk of some embedded storms in deep SWONT/L. Erie regions. Have to run, stupid busy day 🙄😒 #onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario
Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations.
A total precipitation outlook for the day till Midnight
& any active ECCC Alerts at post: None
#onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario
Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations.
A total precipitation outlook for the day till Midnight
& any active ECCC Alerts at post: None
#onwx #onstorm

...along with the wind threat, rain, -several model implying some embedded convection (storms) with this deepening Low as it crosses SONT. #onwx #onstorm

Regarding the evolution & track of that strong wind event for Fri. aft thru eve. RAP 21Z keeps deepening it as it crosses SONT-isobars tighten (white lines) & if you look closely-more inner isobars rings form. #onwx #onstorm I start at 30knots (~55k/h) 1knot=~2k/hr.-Scale at top

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario
Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations.
A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario
Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations.
A total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: None #onwx #onstorm

The latest Canadian model on the next weather system approaching SONT in "following the storm system mode" The center of the low passes right over SONT on Friday. The time=upper right corner. #onwx #onstorm

Some model comparison for possible rainfall amounts for the next weather system for SONT. Totals estimated until Sat. AM #onwx #onstorm

Next up-late Thurs. into Fri. showers/light rain/ maybe the risk of thunder. #onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario
Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations.
A total precipitation outlook for the day till Midnight
& any active ECCC Alerts at post: None
#onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario
Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations.
A total precipitation outlook for the day till Midnight
& any active ECCC Alerts at post: None
#onwx #onstorm

I sometimes like to analyze my #weather stations charting on more interesting days and today was one such day.

#ONSTORM #onwx

Quick Radar estimated rainfall (in inches) for the day till 9PM. I think the overall modeling did well, and that ECCC special weather statement worked out well. #onwx #onstorm