explore | Grilled Cheese

@daviddracula.bsky.social Oct 12, 2026, 8:15 PM

Kevin Warsh using advanced tech to do his homework, realizing he MUST obey his masters.
A weak October pause is being telegraphed as the FED takes its cues straight from media broadcasts rather than basing interest rates on hard data.
@banking.senate.gov @warren.senate.gov
#FinTwit #MacroEconomy

@data.yt Sep 20, 2026, 7:09 AM

Here are examples of emissions policy 🧵
(Not adaptation to climate but mitigation of GHG.)

#climatePolicy #carbon #manufacturing #industry #transit #transportation #energy #energyTransition #greenTransition #cleanTransition #renewables #cars #electricity #electricVehicles #macroeconomy

@2k115.bsky.social Sep 12, 2026, 8:16 PM

Hard Census Bureau data: US July retail sales fell 0.6% MoM to $763.6B, but remain up 5.0% YoY (+6.3% 3-month average). The gap between short-term monthly pullbacks and broader consumer resilience is a key signal for macro analysts tracking inflation and rates.
#MacroEconomy #USMarkets #RetailSales

Official U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Retail Trade survey report (July 2026) overlaid with the 2K115 analytical watermark.
Key Data Points:
July 2026 Total: $763.6B (-0.6% MoM)
Core Measures: Ex Auto (-0.3%), Ex Auto & Gas (-0.2%)
Annual Strength: +5.0% YoY (+6.3% May–July trend)
Key Takeaway:
Highlights the divergence between short-term sequential dips and sustained annual demand in consumer spending.

@2k115.bsky.social Sep 9, 2026, 8:08 PM

Fear & Greed Index hits 40 (Fear) despite zero earnings misses. The entire move tracks $100+ oil and Fed hike odds, not fundamentals. Sentiment reacting to the macro stagflation trap faster than price is the real tell.
#Macroeconomy #2k115

Two-panel chart illustrating the macro divergence driving market sentiment:
Left: CNN Fear & Greed Index showing current market sentiment at 40, placing it squarely in the Fear zone.
Right: 8-week trend mapping the sharp rise in Brent Crude Oil ($/bbl) against dropping Market Sentiment and lagging Equity Valuations, highlighting how energy costs drive fear before stock prices adjust.

@2k115.bsky.social Sep 9, 2026, 7:28 PM

Brent past $100 overnight while Fed rate-hike odds hit 62%. Tightening into a supply-driven oil shock doesn't create energy—it just squeezes corporate margins and drains consumers. A stagflation trap disguised as a mild market dip. #Macroeconomy

A line graph illustrating the parallel rise of Brent Crude oil prices ($/bbl) and Fed Rate-Hike Probability (%) between September 1 and September 09, 2026.
Both metrics show a steady upward trajectory across the period, converging on September 09 at the $100.0/bbl mark for Brent Crude and 62% for the Fed Rate-Hike Odds.

@2k115.bsky.social Sep 7, 2026, 2:27 PM

US labor market printed +162k in August against a 45k speed limit, pushing 2026 Fed rate expectations up over 100 bps. If the Fed holds back on a September rate hike despite sticky inflation data, markets will adjust on their own by driving up term premiums on long-dated bonds. #MacroEconomy