Investors should know WHAT will move a stock and WHEN, especially in biotech with the outsized moves. Build your catalyst calendar ahead of time.

You won't have time to thoughtfully analyze the data when it hits

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When thinking about valuing #biotechs, especially those which are not yet profitable, a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model is perhaps the most important methodology

Though it too has drawbacks

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Here's an annotated #KaplanMeier curve to help investors know what information is being presented.

It covers #mPFS, 12 & 24-month survival, #HazardRatio, #atRisk.

These metrics give different views of a drug.

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Investors should take an unbiased view of data and not only listen to management. Ask yourself: Is the drug doing what it's supposed to do?

Look for: getting to right tissue, target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept

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Incorporating Probability of Success (PoS) is a unique aspect of #biotech valuation investors must be aware of.

It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.

Here is a table of PoS values:

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