@crossvol.bsky.socialGold options price 19.73% implied vol for the next 30 days, 0.68 vols under the 20.41% realized. That is a 51.2 dollar day priced against 53 delivered, and today's 56.2 dollar drop topped both. $GC_F carries that gap into Core PPI on Oct 15 and Warsh on Oct 16.
@crossvol.bsky.socialGold's ratio to silver is 2.00 standard deviations above its 20 session norm. $GC_F added 59.6 dollars to 4191.4, 1.11 times the 53.6 dollar day priced for 30 days. Puts keep a 0.14 vol RR25 edge, so drop cover costs more. Put open interest across expiries is largest at 4100.
@crossvol.bsky.socialOnly 2.7 dollars separate $GC_F at 4183 from the 4185.7 gamma flip, 0.05 of the 52.5 dollar day priced by 30 day IV at 19.91%. Below it negative dealer gamma adds to moves, above it hedging leans against them. FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday Oct 7 test which side holds.
@crossvol.bsky.socialGold has pulled far ahead of silver, a 20 day z score of 2.07 on their log price ratio. Options on $GC_F price a typical daily move of 57.1 dollars over 30 days. The 4214.9 gamma flip is 0.66 of that typical move above 4177.4, and below it dealer hedging feeds swings.