Professor Ludo Visschers from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid will visit the Management School on 21 October to present his paper: 'Cyclical Earnings, Career and Employment Transitions'
@ulmsresearch.bsky.social
@ulmsresearch.bsky.socialProfessor Ludo Visschers from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid will visit the Management School on 21 October to present his paper: 'Cyclical Earnings, Career and Employment Transitions'
@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialMore importantly producer prices jumped 1.3% in September & are up 6.3% from one year ago.
The common denominator is energy, oil, diesel & gasoline prices. #Econ
@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialCPI diffusion indexes: take a look at the number of weighted components advancing above 3% (60.96%) and above 4% (15.91%).
Btw, all of those making the case that inflation would cool or see mild disinflation it is not in the data. #Econ
@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialThe depth and breadth of the triple supply shock-trade, energy and AI- that is working its way through the American economy strongly implies that recent Fed rhetoric on no October hike was premature.
#Econ
@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialWarsh has made reference to the diffusion of price increases and inflation and occupies a prominent place on his dashboard.
Moreover, the causes of that inflation are not going to abate or be altered by policy decisions in the Congressional or Executive Branches any time soon.
#Econ
@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialUS Inflation and the Fed October Policy Decision: If I had a vote on the FOMC I would support a 25-basis point rate hike at its October 28 meeting.
Approximately 60.96% the weighted components inside the CPI series are now advancing above a 3% pace. #Econ
@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialUS September CPI: Inflation arrived hot in September on the back of rising energy prices, transportation costs and consumer electronics all combined to drive the CPI 0.6% higher on the month and 3.7% from one year ago. Core inflation advanced at a 0.3% m/m & 2.6% pace y/y. #Econ
@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialThat will be best illustrated in the fact that the September CPI will result in a sixth consecutive month of declining real wages. #Econ
@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialGood morning
I expect a 0.6% increase in the headlines m/m September CPI report which will translate into a 3.6% y/y increase with risk of a quicker pace of inflation primarily due to rising energy & gasoline prices. #Econ
@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialGood morning.
A look at real wages which are set to decline for the six consecutive month following what we expect will be a 3.6% increase in the September Consumer Price Index from one year ago when it’s published on Wednesday morning at 8:30 ET. #Econ
@pietrobiroli.bsky.socialInterested in the difference between the #econ Nordic model and the US/UK? Check out this beautiful video animation by @econimate.bsky.social on the journal of econ literature paper by Mogstad Salvages and Torsvik
@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialGood morning.
Terrific note on pricing power, inflation & the likely direction of the Fed policy rate.
Well worth a read if you work in a business impacted by the three pricing shocks working their way through the American economy. #Econ
@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialIn less than one year following the unleashing of tariffs they contributed 2.9pp to inflation.
Without the tariffs inflation actual declines.
Worthy of your consideration. #Econ
@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialA little Friday food for thought heading into the weekend courtesy of the @NewYorkFed.
Note the difference between actual inflation and the counterfactual without. #Econ
@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialMy concern is that the buildout of AI is rate insensitive as is the spending of upper income households .
What’s needed, in addition to tighter monetary policy, is a period of fiscal consolidation.
Of course I’m not holding my breath on that. #Econ
@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialGood note via @Bloomberg economics on sources of inflation across the G-7 on the terminal this morning.
In the US it’s demand which is why otherwise dovish FOMC members are sounding quite hawkish lately. #Econ
@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialGood morning.
France provides warning on fiscal credibility to the UK…and the US….if anyone is willing to listen. #Econ
@kefirmadness.bsky.socialCows... like, am intermediary good? #econ
@arxiv-daily-bot.bsky.socialValidity Without Ground Truth: What Stated-Preference Economics Offers the Evaluation of Language Models
Daniel Robert Kling Alexander, Catherine Louise Kling
#arXiv #cs.AI #cs.CL #econ.GN #q-fin.EC
@victorribera.bsky.social