Good morning.

A US diesel export ban would be a global event that would drive up prices in Mexico, the UK, EU & much of South America.
#Econ #EconSky #inflation #rates

Flash PMIs crush it. US 58.4 highest in 5 years. Eurozone 53.1 highest in 3 years. Fed hike odds now 69%, ECB 66%. Iran tensions send $BZ to 100 overnight. Growth meets geopolitical risk. Inflation proving sticky. Hawkish pivot is real.

#macro #rates #economy

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#BookSky #IndieAuthors #indieauthor #books

U.S. rates break higher: 10Y topped 5.14%; 30Y reached 5.44%.
Flash PMI hit 57 vs. 53 expected, reviving inflation and tightening concerns; weak 5Y auction adds demand risk.
Watch 5.32% on 10Y; higher yields pressure growth valuations.
#Treasuries #Rates #Equities

Trump did this to you folks
#Mortgage #rates #10yr #MAGA #Farmers #Iowa #Nebraska #diesel

Meta Connect is the binary today. Hawkish central banks set the regime, 10yr at 4.96%, 75bps tightening priced through June. Equity crowding near 5yr lows leaves room on a catalyst. Options the way to define risk.

#macro #rates #economy

US and EM equities remain resilient, but Europe, real estate and long-duration rates stay under pressure. Oil and gold are diverging, and Japan is closed. This is a split market, not broad risk-on.
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#W18Notes #Macro #Markets #Rates

The BoJ's rate hike is less about inflation control—at 1.9%—and more a response to a weakening yen, revealing deep uncertainties and a fractured consensus within the bank; they seem to be playing catch-up with a narrative of global tightening without solid ground beneath them... #Rates #Macro

Street prices 30-70bps Fed moves meeting-by-meeting through 2027. Cost of capital regime elevated by AI capex and US fiscal. Term premiums rising. Breadth crumbling (<30% above 50MA). Buybacks only bid. Core inflation accelerating. Rates vol repricing coming.

#macro #rates #economy

Fed hawkish through 2027, core inflation accelerating. Yet <30% SPX above 50MA and $171mm DV01 short in rates (JGBs/Bobl/Bunds). Tech inflows masking breadth collapse. Liquidity regime shift imminent. Watch 30-70% move meetings.

#macro #rates #economy

All four major banks and the bulk of money market traders believe the Reserve Bank will raise interest rates next week and governor Michele Bullock did nothing to dissuade them during a speech in Sydney. #interest #rates #monetary #policy #economy #ai

US and EM equities and crypto remain strong, but Europe, real estate and rates do not confirm a broad risk-on move. Japan’s cash market is closed, so fresh price confirmation there is still pending.

w18notes.com/en/notes/tok...
#W18Notes #Macro #Markets #Rates

CBA and ANZ both tipping an RBA rate hike — and oil just fell for a fourth day on steady Saudi supply. The full picture in today's Market at 7: https://market7.financialregister.com.au/p/cba-anz-join-banks-tipping-rba-rate-hike-next-week #RBA #rates

One result: central bankers are underestimating what it’s going to take to restore price stability defined as a 2% target.

Read on to take a look at the range of outcomes. #Econ #EconSky #Fed #Inflation #Rates

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Good morning.

With the US 10-year yield recent moving above 5% we subjected the economy to a greater rate shock to observe its impact on growth, employment & inflation. #Econ #EconSky #Fed #Rates #Inflation

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The narrative highlights strain on American companies from tariffs, fuel costs, and rising interest rates, but reality is more complex. Larger firms with cash reserves and pricing power navigate these challenges better. Smaller firms face crises without such advantages. #Rates #Macro

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US and EM equities remain resilient, while Europe, real estate and bonds stay weak. Japan’s cash market is closed for Silver Week, so fresh confirmation there must wait for reopening. This is not broad risk-on.

w18notes.com/en/notes/tok...
#W18Notes #Macro #Markets #Rates