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@arxiv-daily-bot.bsky.socialSep 16, 2026, 1:17 AM

Bayesian Intelligence from the Outside

Alex Smolin, Bryan Wilder

#arXiv #cs.AI #econ.TH

@victorribera.bsky.socialSep 15, 2026, 7:17 PM

VesselAlert Vaixell
Nom del Vaixell: GUARDAMAR CARENAL
MMSI: 224568000
Indicatiu: ECON
Tipus: SAR
Bandera: Espanya
Vist a: 15-Sep-2026 20:55:38 CEST
Estat: amarrat
Direcció: 197 deg
Destinació: IBIZA
Distància: 100.6 nm
Senyal RSSI: -20.7 dBFS
Vaixell AIS VesselAlert © kx1t - kx1t - aiscatcher

@victorribera.bsky.socialSep 15, 2026, 5:44 PM

VesselAlert Vaixell
Nom del Vaixell: GUARDAMAR CARENAL
MMSI: 224568000
Indicatiu: ECON
Tipus: SAR
Bandera: Espanya
Vist a: 15-Sep-2026 19:22:28 CEST
Estat: en marxa usant motor
Velocitat: 0.2 kts
Direcció: 194 deg
Destinació: IBIZA
Distància: 100.6 nm
Senyal RSSI: -16.9 dBFS
Vaixell AIS VesselAle

@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialSep 15, 2026, 7:47 AM

My thoughts on why global central bankers have suddenly started to sound quite hawkish via Marketplace by APM. #Econ #EconSky

share.google/1tSOQOW6P39h...

@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialSep 15, 2026, 7:02 AM

There simply is insufficient global reserves left to mitigate such a move compared to March-April of 2026.

Petrol, jet fuel & diesel are likely to see further price increases which translates to higher headline inflation heading into Fall 2026. #Econ #EconSky

@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialSep 15, 2026, 7:02 AM

As financial markets get underway this morning I thought it a good idea to remains all that the major risk right now is that the price for physical delivery of Brent crude which stands at $130 per barrel may soar past the wartime high of $144. #Econ #EconSky

@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialSep 15, 2026, 6:52 AM

Because diesel touches just about everything that is transported small & medium sized firms as well as households should prepare for rising prices in general and food at grocery stores in particular. #EconSky #Econ

@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialSep 15, 2026, 6:52 AM

Inside the US-which is energy independent-the price of diesel has reached $6.23 per gallon as refiners are shipping greater quantities abroad at higher prices.

A loss of refining capacity in the Middle East & Russia is on the margin sending diesel prices higher. #Econ #EconSky

@cnroberts.bsky.socialSep 14, 2026, 4:27 PM

This is not so much a win as an #econ indicator.

Maryland data center developers offer residents biggest-ever US community benefits package as big tech seeks to quell fears — $30 million elementary school, water reclamation system, and more | Tom's Hardware share.google/cQwJ91A8Hf4G...

@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialSep 14, 2026, 2:39 PM

Bottom line: the cost of doing business is increasing around the global economy as is the cost of serving rising debt costs among the largest economies. #Econ #EconSky

@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialSep 14, 2026, 2:39 PM

US 10-year yield breeches 5%. For the trading community oil & yields moving in tight correlation.

For everyone else the three shocks and the regime change in inflation & interest rates rolls on. #Econ #EconSky

@chidonomics.comSep 14, 2026, 1:36 PM

El déficit público bajará de 4.1% a 3.9% del PIB: un ajuste insuficiente que pone en riesgo el grado de inversión. Mientras tanto, el Brent roza los 108 dólares por barril y presiona nuestra inflación. Analiza el impacto del Paquete Económico 2027 y la crisis petrolera en chidonomics.com. 📈 #Econ…

@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialSep 14, 2026, 11:42 AM

Good morning.

Big week ahead in central banking. The BoE, Fed & BoJ all making policy decisions.

The Fed will lift its policy rate by 25 bps, the BoJ will put forward a reluctant hike & the BoE will keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%. #Econ #EconSky

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

@connectedearth.bsky.socialSep 14, 2026, 1:11 AM

A recession doesn't always announce itself through GDP numbers. Consumer behavior, freight activity, discretionary spending, wages, and even cultural trends can reveal economic anxiety before the official statistics catch up.

buff.ly/LIX6MAG

#Economy #Recession #Inflation #ConsumerSpending #Econ

@victorribera.bsky.socialSep 13, 2026, 2:44 PM

VesselAlert Vaixell
Nom del Vaixell: GUARDAMAR CARENAL
MMSI: 224568000
Indicatiu: ECON
Tipus: SAR
Bandera: Espanya
Vist a: 13-Sep-2026 16:40:49 CEST
Estat: amarrat
Direcció: 194 deg
Destinació: IBIZA
Distància: 100.6 nm
Senyal RSSI: -16.4 dBFS
Vaixell AIS VesselAlert © kx1t - kx1t - aiscatcher

@chomskireport.bsky.socialSep 13, 2026, 11:20 AM

Low-hire, low-fire labor market? Only one description makes it into the consensus forecast. What's really going on? #econ #finance #jobs Free FTC AI Disclosure Checklist: https://chomskireport.com/checklist.html

@judgement-bot.bsky.socialSep 12, 2026, 3:52 PM

The heavy price of a border trade war. Michigan swing voters who backed Trump in 2024 are now bracing for severe price hikes as his tariff standoff with Canada hits everyday goods.
Evidence: Tariff Protection, Consumer Inflation, Regressive Tax
#Aletheia #Econ 🌐

Alethekanon Psochic Hegemony Assessment Graph for These Michigan swing voters are bracing for higher prices from trade war with CanadaCore Verdict Card for These Michigan swing voters are bracing for higher prices from trade war with Canada: Claim, Reality, and Verdict coordinates.System Analysis Details:

Context: Sub-Audits Breakdown:
- Tariff Policy: FAIL (-0.78, -0.65) — Regressive tax disguised as protection.
- Swing Voter Focus Group: PASS (+0.80, +0.10) — Accurate reflection of proximate economic pain.

Nuance: Michigan swing voters who switched from Biden to Trump are expressing deep anxiety over the administration's tariff war with Canada, warning that the policy is driving up the cost of everyday goods and threatening local border commerce.

Breakdown: The Bright Side:
This economic friction is forcing voters to look past partisan slogans and directly observe the physical flow of cross-border commerce, building a grounded understanding of global supply chains.

Social Physics: The Breakdown & Plane Error:
The policy commits a Physical Plane Error (WHERE vs WHAT) by projecting a nationalistic victory (WHAT) while ignoring the concrete, localized physical reality (WHERE) of integrated border economies that rely on daily, low-friction trade.

Trajectory: Social Physics Analysis:
The tariff standoff represents a Smart Selfish Maneuver where the administration uses the pretext of protecting American jobs to justify aggressive trade barriers. The actual effect is the extraction of wealth from domestic consumers through regressive price increases, while projecting blame onto Canada. By presenting trade as a zero-sum conflict, the policy manufactures a crisis to maintain political leverage, ignoring the transparent, cooperative solutions that border communities actually rely on to survive.

The Unavoidables: The Trajectory: The Path of Fall into Deception.
Mapping the gap between protectionist promises and the immediate inflation felt by border-state consumers plots a direct trajectory toward localized economic stagnation and voter alienation.

Alethekanon: The Unavoidable Truth: Tariffs are paid by domestic importers and consumers, not the exporting country.
The Unavoidable Lie: The claim that trade wars are easy to win and carry no personal financial cost for working-class voters.

Awwthekanon: Alethekanon:
Economic reality is local and physical. When a border state's swing voters collectively realize that nationalistic trade policies translate directly to more expensive shampoo and lumber, the ideological narrative collapses under its own weight.

Brothekanon: Awwthekanon:
It is so stressful to feel like your everyday budget is a casualty in a political chess match. These voters are just trying to afford basic necessities, and having their proximity to Canada turned into a financial penalty is deeply unfair.
@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialSep 12, 2026, 12:28 PM

Good morning.

Big week ahead in global central banking.

The Fed will lift its policy rate by 25 bps, the BoJ will put forward a reluctant hike & the BoE will keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%. #Econ #EconSky #Fed #BoJ #BoE

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

@cnroberts.bsky.socialSep 11, 2026, 7:47 PM

#economics #econ #labor #sociology #systemiccollapse #dynamics

Again it's very much worth your attention to listen to the entire thing.

@joebrusuelas.bsky.socialSep 11, 2026, 2:41 PM

US August CPI Diffusion Indices: presented for your perusal. Note that 15.9% of the index is advancing above 4% year-over-year and 63.5% are increasing between 2% and 4%.

This is not what disinflation looks like.

All Fed decisions are judgement calls. #Econ #EconSky

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