@tradegrub.bsky.socialMost backtests are lies. Walk-forward optimization splits your data into expanding windows so you're not training on tomorrow's prices. You build on old data, test on fresh data, repeat. #Trading #Algo #Backtesting
@tradingstrategies.work10/10
Nearer event first: 18 Sep weekly, 18,275 contracts, max pain 78,000, at spot.
A strike with n=1 behind it is not a forecast. OI structure and vol pricing are readable.
tradingstrategies.work/dashboard/bi...
Study the Past — Improve your Future 🥋 #backtesting
@tradingstrategies.work9/9
Four questions for any RWA number:
→ in the vehicle, or on the chain?
→ distributed, or represented?
→ same tracker, same boundaries?
→ which date?
tradingstrategies.work/dashboard/cr...
Not investment advice, not a forecast.
Study the Past — Improve your Future 🥋
#backtesting
@beefedai.bsky.socialMonitoring and Continuous Optimization of Investment Algorithms
https://beefed.ai/en/monitor-optimize-investment-algorithms
#AlgorithmMonitoring #ModelDriftDetection #Backtesting #AbTesting #PerformanceMetrics
@tradingstrategies.work9/9
Before believing any "after X came Y": ask for the drift, the pairing, the independent count, the locked definition.
Run any state:
tradingstrategies.work/market/bitco...
Not investment advice, not a forecast.
Study the Past — Improve your Future 🥋
#backtesting
@tradingstrategies.work1/9
Bitcoin made a median +31 % in the six months after quiet volatility.
It made +27 % in the same six months without the condition.
The first number gets posted. The second one decides whether the first means anything.
@tradingstrategies.work10/10
Watch not how many allocators agree, but what share of Bitcoin sits where nobody made a Bitcoin decision.
tradingstrategies.work/blog/bitcoin...
Not investment advice, not a forecast.
Study the Past — Improve your Future 🥋
#backtesting
@tradingstrategies.work10/10
A flatter ride, in every case measured. Paid for in the rally windows.
Open: what sets how much rally you keep?
tradingstrategies.work/blog/grid-bo...
Not investment advice, not a forecast.
Study the Past — Improve your Future 🥋
#backtesting
@tradingstrategies.work1/10
Your grid bot is not a hedge. It is half your money sitting in cash.
That is where the protection comes from, in every one of 138 windows measured since 2017. And it is why the bot misses the rally when it comes.
@quantpedia.bsky.socialQuantpedia in August 2026
– new report in the Live Strategies section called Composite Analysis
– 11 new Quantpedia Premium strategies
– 5 new related research papers
– 8 new backtests
– 5 new blog posts
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@tradingstrategies.work10/10
What survives all four questions:
$BTC · Keltner Breakout · daily
→ 9.0 years
→ 36.6% CAGR
→ 30+ trades
→ no asterisk
tradingstrategies.work/blog/100000-backtests-what-works-in-crypto
Study the Past — Improve your Future 🥋
#backtesting
@tradingstrategies.work1/10
Backtest number 100,000 just ran on our platform.
Here is what that pile of evidence says actually works in crypto — and the four questions that expose a lying performance number.
