As I keep highlighting, the government’s problem is not 1.5 million new homes in England in 5 years or not 1.5 million. House building has fallen for the last 3 years & is falling this year. The government’s problem is to stop it falling further next year as well. (16/end)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

... now we are beginning to see the effects of conflict-driven further fall in housing affordability play out in terms of starts, as renewed conflict-driven rises in oil & energy costs (& mortgage rate) accelerate again. (15/n)
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As I have highlighted many times, affordability & site viability were already key problems before the Middle East conflict. The conflict is making them both worse (combined with government adding more & more extra costs on to house building) &... (14/n)
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... the government Building Safety Levy starts adding extra cost onto house building in October & the government's Future Homes & Building Standards adds extra cost onto house building in March, which will all make site viability even worse. (13/n)
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The return of oil prices above $100 per barrel in September (& more importantly the sharp rise in industrial energy prices) will lead to even more construction products price rises & house building cost rises over the next 6-9 months, &... (12/n)
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... firms are currently doing business planning & budgeting for the year ahead, & will be expecting house building activity remains flat at this year's low level at best & potentially falls again in 2027 (especially in H1), so they will plan further capacity cuts. (11/n)
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Firms supplying into the early part of house building (i.e. house building starts) have already cut capacity by around 21% on average. These capacity cuts have focused on the older, more inefficent factories so they won't be brought back &... (10/n)
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This is the 4th consecutive year of low housing demand (& demand is currently slowing) & sharply rising costs, so many firms have already cut capacity & skills signficantly during the last 18 months. (9/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

Deliveries year-to-date (January to July) in 2026 were 10.4% lower than a year ago & 31.7% lower than at the recent peak in 2022, which is concerning, especially as we are only just beginning to see the effect of the conflict on housing demand & costs from July. (8/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

The July 2026 fall in deliveries of 19.5% vs July 2025 is more concerning, but in the rest of 2026 the annual % fall will look less bad as housing demand & activity from August-November 2025 were affected by unprecedented Autumn Budget tax-rise speculation. (7/n)
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House builders are still building out some existing developments but they are adjusting build-rates to the subdued & slowing level of demand & they are not starting new developements except in a few exceptional cases on selected sites. (6/n)
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The Spring rise in mortgage rates takes time to feed through to house building starts (from July onwards) as house building activity in Q2 was based on forward sales (& mortgage rates) before the Middle East conflict. (5/n)
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July's significant fall in deliveries was expected (& in line with the falls in the Office for National Statistics volume of house building output) as we begin to see the impacts of the Middle East conflict rise in mortgage rates start to feed through in 2026 H2. (4/n)
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Deliveries in July 2026 were also 38.6% lower than in March 2022, which was at the recent peak of house building starts, which was still during the 'race for space' peak of housing demand & when there were still low mortgage rates & government housing stimulus. (3/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

Deliveries in July 2026 were also 30.3% lower than the 2018-19 average, which was before the major disruptions since 2020, before the initial rise in mortgage rates in 2022 & before the end of all government housing & house building stimulus. (2/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. Deliveries in July 2026 were 6.8% lower than in June & 19.5% lower than a year ago, according to the Department for Business & Trade. (1/n)
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𝗨𝗞 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀

Morgan Sindall profits up 21%. Keller revenues up 11%. Both strong results. Read alongside 3,805 insolvencies in the same period and a different picture emerges. A thread. #UKConstruction

Overall, house building activity year-to-date (January to July) in 2026 is already 8.4% lower than a year ago & we are only just starting to see the Middle East conflict impacts feed through to activity. This is the 4th consecutive year of falling house building. (15/end)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

... which officially started in April, starts to deliver activity down on the ground, which is only expected at in 2026 Q4 or, more likely, 2027 H1. (14/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

... public house building activity in July 2026 was 3.2% higher than in June but 22.2% as activity on the old Affordable Homes Programme continues to slow & before activity on the Social and Affordable Homes Programme,... (13/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction