Various current model overview's on rainfall potential ~now till Wed. 8PM. All tell a slightly different story, what's common in these runs "Et al." models-is the focus in deep SWONT & N. regions/Cottage Country-of SONT -these regions may experience more rainfall. #onwx #onstorm

Waited for the latest 0Z run of the HRRR48 - Radar 4cast- from ~now till 8PM Wed. the bulk of the system (showers/scat. storms) moves thru N sections of SW/SC/Cottage C./EONT. Heavier rainfall potentially will be in xtreme SWONT. #onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario
Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A
total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC alerts at post:
shorturl.at/W644x
#onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario
Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A
total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post:None #onwx #onstorm

Latest hourly run of the HRRR -Radar + cloud cover 50% and up, from ~now till 1 AM Tues. Showers and a few storms will be focused in SW sections of NWONT, For SONT clear to start, increasing mid-high clouds into the late aft./early evening. #onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario
Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A
total precipitation outlook for day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post:None
#onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario
Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A
total precipitation outlook for day till Midnight & any active ECCC Alerts at post:
shorturl.at/st4Up - Frost
#onwx #onstorm

The ring of fire returns to southern Ontario by midweek with the risk of daily showers, and thunderstorms for some, amid a sticky September air mass. #ONstorm #ONwx

https://ow.ly/Ma6u50ZNhHr

Getting caught in some hail on Sept 2nd on the east side of St. Thomas, Ontario - this was the 6th storm of the day that was part of the major severe weather outbreak - the hail was mostly 10mm in size with some quarters and dollar sized chunks, only a couple toonies thankfully! #ONstorm #ONwx

First supercell chased on Sept 2nd approaching Avon, Ontario - this was the first storm of the day that was part of the major severe weather outbreak. For a little while it had good defined rotation. Had to keep ahead of the hail with the storm. #ONstorm #ONwx

Squall line Sept 2nd approaching Perth South, Ontario - this was the third storm of the day that was part of the major severe weather outbreak #ONstorm #ONwx

Dew-point drop...bye-bye humid air🙌 cooler, drier air flooding in. #onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario
Such as-pressure/temp.-fields/frontal locations. A
total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC alerts at post: None
#onwx #onstorm

8PM EDT (00Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of
current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario
Such as-pressure/temp. fields/frontal locations. A
total precipitation outlook for overnight till 8AM next day & any active ECCC Alerts at post: shorturl.at/xapRU
#onwx #onstorm

...as for rainfall potential next week, subtle differences in the modelling for SONT, but when I combine all guidance, looks to be drier overall for SONT. My only concern is extreme SWONT (yes-that's you Essex county) for the risk of more rainfall. (my 5 ¢ opinion) #onwx #onstorm

Look at the week ahead Temperature wise. Mean average temperature anomaly (+/- from normal) for the next 5 days for the Great Lakes and SONT. Basically-the ensembles/AI on the same page. #onwx #onstorm

Your "MLCAPE fix" for the day. Most of the substantial CAPE is along the lower lakes into EONT. Enough there to get triggered. By the end of day cooler/drier air moves in and the "light blue shades" shows off the low ended Lake induced CAPE downstream. #onwx #onstorm

Latest hourly run of the HRRR-Radar 4cast- from ~now till Midnight. The HRRR has NE/EONT pegged for more scat. showers/storms. Elsewhere, the risk is reduced for a decent shower or storm. The pattern remains slack. #onwx #onstorm