My read: everyone's watching oil through Hormuz — missing what actually moves batteries. Phosphate and helium move through the same corridor — but won't show up on an oil chart.

#quant #stocks

Adaptive Entangled Game Modules in Artificial General Intelligence

Haochen Li et al.

#arXiv #cs.AI #physics.soc-ph #q-bio.NC #q-fin.GN #quant-ph

Adaptive Entangled Game Modules in Artificial General Intelligence

Haochen Li et al.

#arXiv #cs.AI #physics.soc-ph #q-bio.NC #q-fin.GN #quant-ph

Refiners in Asia and Europe are left short. The war has shut the sea routes Saudi Arabia depends on to deliver crude.

#quant #stocks

Conditional Maximum Loss (CML) is a multi-period generalization of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR).

CML accounts for the path-dependent tail risk between rebalancing times.

Find a Python case study of how it compares to CVaR in the Substack article below.

#quant #quantsky #finance #python #cml

5.22%. That's Australia's 10-year bond yield now — the highest since the data series began in 2015, and it's topped every daily reading since. My take: this travels. I'd bet Canada and New Zealand reprice the same way within a quarter.

#quant #stocks

EU vol radar · Thursday Sep 10

$Xetra / DAX: front vol bid, backwardation showing. Dealer hedging drives the near leg.
$Euronext Paris / CAC 40: inverted curve, negative gamma dealers. Near-term stress priced in.

#volatility #derivatives #quant

Bund yields just hit 3.41%, the highest in 11 years. One loser—Italy and France's refinancing—and one winner nobody's discussing.

#quant #stocks

I think Brent's 5% surge is fear, not shortage — Western margins compress. Inventories rose 17M barrels this week; price jumped 5% — how does that add up?

#quant #stocks

Asia-Pac vol radar · Thursday Sep 10

$SSE / Shanghai Composite: dealers short gamma with vol at lows. Thin cushion, fragile setup.
$NSE / Nifty 50: gamma short, vol flatlined. The calm before something reprices.

#volatility #derivatives #quant

Employers of half America's private workforce lost confidence — costs rising, sales falling. But this isn't one headline number — it's two separate signals moving simultaneously.

#quant #stocks

Your mortgage payment could rise within weeks — not when you refinance. Variable-rate loans adjust instantly when the RBA moves, and the central bank has flagged another hike.

#quant #stocks

U.S. goods now cost more crossing into Canada. Ottawa's tariffs on U.S. goods mean both countries now tax the other.

#quant #stocks

European open · Wednesday Sep 9

$Borsa Italiana / FTSE MIB: inverted curve, negative gamma dealers. Near-term stress priced in.
$BME / IBEX 35: short gamma regime with backwardation. Front-month tension visible.

#volatility #derivatives #quant

Gilt yields jumped on an inflation-risk premium, though inflation expectations are flat. Andrew Bailey reads the curve as pricing a widened premium across all maturities.

#quant #stocks

Asia session read · Wednesday Sep 9

$KRX / KOSPI: backwardation, front vol trades above the back. Dealers adjusting near term.
$MSCI China: dealers short the near leg, backwardation widening. Stress signal.

#volatility #derivatives #quant

Household inflation expectations held flat at already-high levels. The Fed sees no easing in price pressure before it meets.

#quant #stocks