The munitions shortage widens each cycle because production can't keep pace. Pentagon's inspector general found the constraint: production lines and supplier contracts won't accelerate.

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Why new asset managers are unlikely to survive if they don’t have a significantly different investment and technology approach.

substack.com/@antonvorobe...

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Europe vol pulse · Tuesday Sep 15

$Nasdaq Stockholm / OMX: short gamma regime with backwardation. Front-month tension visible.
$FTSE Europe: inverted curve, negative gamma dealers. Near-term stress priced in.

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Crude spiked 4% to 16-week high after Saudi attacks — gas up next. What matters: whether Saudi export disruption is real or just market fear.

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Fed raised rates today—your next mortgage quote is instantly more expensive. Existing fixed-rate debt won't change, but variable-rate debt reprices on your next billing cycle.

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Qatar's LNG exports fell 96% — just 18 cargoes left. My read: Europe outbids everyone for spot gas, so Pakistan and Bangladesh can't compete.

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Borrowing costs repriced higher — the Fed will now hike, not cut rates. Banks had modeled cooler inflation; this week's data proved them wrong.

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Russians are leaving over conscription fear and lost freedoms. Fresh conscription call-ups for the war in Ukraine, plus tightening limits on travel, speech and association at home, are the reasons people now give, PBS reports.

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Asia open · Tuesday Sep 15

$SGX / STI: front vol bid, backwardation showing. Dealer hedging drives the near leg.
$TWSE / TAIEX: dealers short the near leg, backwardation widening. Stress signal.

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Treasury yields broke 5% — repricing mortgages, corporate debt, and government borrowing. The government's next debt auction is this quarter — at the 5% rate it just pushed higher.

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Warsh takes questions now. His reasoning reshapes expectations for the next meeting. Everything traders reprice by tomorrow hangs on one sentence from now.

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A Saudi pipeline outage is cutting 4% of global oil. Spot-market buyers don't feel the shock first.

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EU session read · Monday Sep 14

$Eurex / Euro Stoxx 50: gamma negative, curve inverted. Dealers are not cushioning here.
$SIX / SMI: short gamma regime with backwardation. Front-month tension visible.

#volatility #derivatives #quant

Tesla's China growth slowed to 10%-plus, the weakest pace in the streak. Unit volumes hit a record high despite the slowest growth rate.

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Oil crossed $100 a barrel this week — the same US-Iran tanker attack ran as three separate headlines, each time as if it were new.

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Asia-Pac vol pulse · Monday Sep 14

$Bursa Malaysia / KLCI: inverted curve, negative gamma dealers. Near-term stress priced in.
$HKEX / Hang Seng: gamma negative, curve inverted. Dealers are not cushioning here.

#volatility #derivatives #quant

A pipeline carrying Saudi oil around the Red Sea just shut down. More of that crude now moves through contested waters — or takes longer alternate routes.

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