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@capitolhillaccess.bsky.social Oct 1, 2026, 2:06 PM

Real time independent expenditure reporting for #VA05

See the list:

http://capitolhillaccess.com/tr/tr_TM_IEPRenderRedSummary.aspx?&sChamber=H&sStateDist=VA-05&sCycle=2026

Real time independent expenditure reporting for #VA05

See the full list:...

@capitolhillaccess.bsky.social Oct 1, 2026, 2:05 PM

Virginians for Conservative Leadership PAC spends $5,361 to SUPPORT John J. Mr. Iii Mcguire (Hse VA-05)(R)

#VA05.

2026 Cycle FEC Data:

https://capitolhillaccess.com/tr/tr_ef_filer?&sFECID=C00960658&sCycle=2026

FEC:

https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00960658/2015855...

@rdnarang.bsky.social Oct 1, 2026, 11:35 AM

WaPo has Shannon Taylor up 50-46 in #VA01 and Tom Perriello down 51-45 in #VA05 www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

@sconesandbutter.bsky.social Sep 30, 2026, 8:49 PM

#VA05
#VoteBlue and #VoteEarly
Let's send @tomperriello.bsky.social back to the House of Representatives

#FireMcGuire

@victoriamillerston.bsky.social Sep 30, 2026, 1:38 PM

Voted first day of early Voting in Virginia. #VA05

@sachristan.bsky.social Sep 28, 2026, 6:06 PM

#RVA #NoKings #Oct17 Save the date congressman 😁 #WeThePeople #VA05

@trumpstaxes.com Sep 28, 2026, 5:15 PM

Some interesting analysis of the early vote in suddenly-competitive #VA05.

Democrats in this red district seem to be blowing the doors off in early voting here, and that could help lead @tomperriello.bsky.social to a shocking win.

Long ways to go, but off to a promising start.

September 28 EV thoughts: Mostly, be patient

We are still at the point where I personally find high-quality new polls much more interesting to discuss and analyze than EV. And outside Virginia, I still don’t think there’s much data to analyze. Even in Virginia, any conclusions after the first week should be pretty half-baked.

But I will share some initial thoughts on VA-05.

In 2024, the district’s absentee and early electorate was Trump+9.3 across 209,446 ballots. So far in 2026, we model the first 173,979 ballots as coming from a Harris+8.4 electorate. There’s uncertainty around that estimate, of course, but it's absolutely not possible that it's a Trump-won electorate in VA-05 so far for example.

Harris+8.4 is a wild number, and certainly won’t hold. Perriello is currently drawing heavily from voters who participated in all three recent elections, and have Democratic primary histories or live in very blue areas. Even in a very good scenario for him, the composition of the early electorate will become at least a bit less blue as voting continues.

Still, the low-propensity voters showing up in VA-05 are even more Democratic-leaning than the high-propensity voters. On the evidence we have so far, early voting could hardly look better for Perriello, but also want to be clear a week of excellent early vote data should tell us pretty little about the final result. As I've said, there is no floor here for Republicans. The low-propensity voters coming out so far are just very, very Democratic in their typography (modeled race, precinct partisanship, and past primary vote history if you're lucky) and of course there is no guarantee that low-prop GOP leaning voters come out at all.

So to me we are looking at a Lean R race in VA but closer to Tilt than Likely. Our Bayesian model has the mean expected electorate in VA-05 down to Trump+9.2 from a prior of Trump+9.7 (he won it by 12.2% in 2024) so Perriello would still either need to do better persuasion-wise than our forecast expects or keep having turnout dynamics break his way. Our forecast has McGuire favored by 5.9 so this 0.5 change in turnout expectations just doesn't really cut into his expected win margin!

Notably, VA-01 and VA-02 look a bit better than VA-05 for Republicans. We still have them a bit bluer than at this point in 2025, but not what we’re seeing in VA-05.

@sconesandbutter.bsky.social Sep 26, 2026, 8:35 PM

#VA05 #VoteBlue and #FireMcGuire
Send @tomperriello.bsky.social back to Congress

@mark-brooks.bsky.social Sep 26, 2026, 7:26 PM

Congressman @bobbyscott.house.gov, @tomperriello.bsky.social hold court at a 2014 political event.

#VA03 #VA05

Photo by me.

@mark-brooks.bsky.social Sep 26, 2026, 6:54 PM

@tomperriello.bsky.social with the late, great former chair of Prince Edward County Dems, Lacy Ward. Rest in Peace, Hero.

5th CD Dinner, 2009, photo by me.

#VA05

@mark-brooks.bsky.social Sep 26, 2026, 6:45 PM

@tomperriello.bsky.social at the 2009 5th CD Dinner, talking with guests.

Photo by me.

#VA05

@mark-brooks.bsky.social Sep 26, 2026, 6:43 PM

@tomperriello.bsky.social at the 5th CD Dinner in 2009, photo by me.

#VA05

@trumpstaxes.com Sep 26, 2026, 4:46 PM

Let's start in Virginia where Paige Perriello had the honor of voting early for her very own brother @tomperriello.bsky.social in what is an unexpectedly competitive #VA05.

Thank you for banking your ballot early, Paige!

bsky.app/profile/paig...

@lcv.org Sep 24, 2026, 5:55 PM

Former Rep. @tomperriello.bsky.social will fight back against Trump’s reckless climate policies, promote clean energy development, and deliver lower utility bills for Virginia.

#LCVAF is thrilled to endorse him for #VA05