@gas-station-susie.bsky.socialIn The Unknown Enemy, motivated reasoning does more than cherry-pick facts: it cherry-picks the rules used to judge them, all while preserving an illusion of objectivity. Bias, it seems, can wear a tie.
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@gas-station-susie.bsky.socialThe Unknown Enemy argues that Western leaders should have given more weight to Karzai’s read of Taliban behaviour than to their own projections. Local insight was available; confidence elbowed it aside.
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@gas-station-susie.bsky.socialThe Unknown Enemy shows how rising enemy activity before Tet was made to fit an optimistic US view: evidence of strength became proof of weakness. A neat bit of reasoning—right up until reality objected.
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@gas-station-susie.bsky.socialIn The Unknown Enemy, Russia’s Siverskyi Donets crossing illustrates plan continuation bias: Ukrainian artillery made the plan unfeasible, yet Russian forces tried nine times. Persistence is a poor substitute for updated assumptions.
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