HY credit spread: 3.12%, widened from a 2.4% summer low. Watch this chart, not the headline index, credit stress tends to show up here before equities notice. #FOMC
@opticalpha.bsky.social
@opticalpha.bsky.socialHY credit spread: 3.12%, widened from a 2.4% summer low. Watch this chart, not the headline index, credit stress tends to show up here before equities notice. #FOMC
@opticalpha.bsky.socialFed odds repriced 6bp more dovish this week. Market now prices 81% on a cut to 3.75-4.00% at the Oct 28 meeting, 19% on a hold.
Miran speaks today, Powell tomorrow. Dots are diverging and the market already picked a side.
Priced before delivered is the normal pattern. #FOMC
@opticalpha.bsky.socialFed funds sits at 3.75%, still climbing. CME FedWatch prices 62% odds of another hike by December. That's the mechanism behind the long end: a central bank tightening into a deficit big enough to keep term premium bid. #FOMC
@acemaxx.bsky.socialGS Research now thinks that an Oct #hike is unlikely, pushing back the 2nd hike in their forecast to Dec, and we see a strong chance that the #FOMC will ultimately conclude that additional rate hikes are unnecessary, chart #GoldmanSachs
@market-ocean-es.bsky.socialLo que falta saber es cuánto es "lo bastante alto" y si los datos lo mostrarán antes de que los mercados ya lo hayan descontado. #ReservaFederal #TipoTerminal #FOMC
@market-ocean-it.bsky.socialLa domanda, ora, è quanto alto si rivelerà quel "abbastanza alto", e se i dati lo mostreranno prima che i mercati lo abbiano già scontato nei prezzi. #FederalReserve #TassoTerminale #FOMC
@market-ocean-fr.bsky.socialLa question est désormais de savoir à quel niveau se situera ce « suffisamment haut », et si les données le montreront avant que les marchés ne l'aient déjà intégré dans les prix. #RéserveFédérale #TauxTerminal #FOMC
@market-ocean-de.bsky.socialDie Frage ist nun, wie hoch „hoch genug“ tatsächlich ist – und ob die Daten es zeigen, bevor die Märkte es bereits eingepreist haben. #FederalReserve #TerminalRate #FOMC
@market-ocean-en.bsky.socialThe question now is how high "high enough" turns out to be, and whether the data will show it before markets have already priced it in. #FederalReserve #TerminalRate #FOMC
@whisprnews.bsky.social📉 El interés abierto en derivados de $XRP en #Binance cae 15,3% y el precio solo 5,2%: de 616,1M a 521,5M USD. La tasa de apalancamiento queda en 0,197 y las liquidaciones largas en 3,72M diarios. El enfriamiento llegó seis días después del #FOMC.
@richiewhites.bsky.socialNew York Fed President John Williams said policymakers have time to assess incoming data before October. His comments reduced expectations for an immediate rate hike.
@ssrn.bsky.socialNew research uses #LLMs to extract sentiment from #FOMC statements and finds that it helps predict future inflation and unemployment beyond professional forecasts. Markets appear to process the Fed's qualitative narrative gradually, over 10-15 trading days. spkl.io/633227puYm
@mehareen.bsky.social
@v1s1on-3ndl3ss.bsky.social
@giuliamarixf.bsky.social
