The volume of total house building activity in August 2026 was also 29.3% lower than in January 2020, pre-pandemic, before any of the major disruptions in recent years & it was 29.7% lower than at the recent peak of activity, during 2022, according to the ONS. (2/n)
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From the Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK GDP data this morning, the volume of total house building activity in August 2026 was 2.1% lower than in July, a 3rd successive monthly fall, & 11.5% lower than a year earlier. (1/n)
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Overall, September is likely to have only seen a seasonal uptick in deliveries & starts & Q4 & 2027 H1 are likely to remain very difficult for house building before we, hopefully, see a better 2027 H2 (that at least benefits from a low comparator a year earlier). (12/end)
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... compared with 9,695 homes in its financial year 2026, which ended on 31 July 2026, which means it is expecting a fall of between 3.0% and 7.2% in the year to July 2027. It also means its completions in 2027 would be 16-20% lower than in the year to July 2022. (11/n)
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The most recent major house builder results were from Bellway, yesterday. Given a lower order book & ongoing pressures on customer demand, it said it is targeting completions of between 9,000 & 9,400 in its financial year 2027,... (10/n)
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... it's mainly due to all government’s extra costs on house building. The most recent is the Building Safety Levy, which started this month & costs will rise further with the Future Homes & Building Standards in March 2027 (although there is a 1-year grace period). (9/n)
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In lower-priced areas, affordability isn’t the key constraint, site viability is. This is partly due to construction product cost rises (& construction product prices are 50.8% higher than in January 2020), due to oil & energy price spikes in 2022 & this year, but... (8/n)
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... financing costs, stamp duty, the 2nd staircase requirement & a lack of foreign investment are also major issues. As a result, it's unsurprising that Taylor Wimpey has said it will pull out of residential in London as soon as it finishes its current developments. (7/n)
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Plus, higher mortgage rates may be a bigger constraint than deposits. Development in London, specifically, isn’t only affected by affordability issues. Leasehold & service charge concerns, plus higher risk from late-stage viability assessments,...(6/n)
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‘Your First Home’ may improve affordability near-term for some first-time buyers of new build but some market analysts' views that it boosts completions 10% next year are guesses at best, especially as we don’t know what the price caps & income thresholds will be. (5/n)
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This is concerning as we are only beginning to see the lagged effect of the Middle East conflict on demand & costs, never mind the recent rises since September, which will negatively affect housing demand and costs further in Q4 and particularly 2027 H1. (4/n)
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Deliveries year-to-date (January to August) in 2026 were 10.4% lower than a year ago, 32.3% lower than the recent peak in 2022 & they were even lower than in 2020, when the industry shut down for 3 months due to the 1st pandemic lockdown. (3/n)
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They were also 36.4% lower than the 2018-19 average, which was before any of the major disruptions since 2020, & they were 43.9% lower than in Spring 2022, the recent peak in starts. (2/n)
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UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data.

Deliveries in August 2026 were 8.7% lower than in July & 10.1% lower than a year ago, according to the Department for Business, Innovation, Science & Trade. (1/n)

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But government is hoping it will boost house building (or at least stop house building completions falling in 2027), & give it time for its policies to boost house building, which are long-term structural changes, such as... (10/n)
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... it certainly won't be as big a policy as the initial 'Help to Buy' as the policy and macroeconomic conditions are different & it won't be the bonanza for house builders & house builder CEO bonuses that some in media and financial markets initially think it is. (9/n)
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This doesn't mean 'Your First Home' won't enable more demand (it will) & it doesn't mean it won't be used in lower-priced areas (it will but it may largely be a substitution effect in lower price areas with people buying who could afford anyway) but... (8/n)
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& the extra government costs on house building (which will rise further with the Building Safety Levy in October 2026 & the Future Homes & Building Standards in March 2027) need to be addressed or many sites will still remain unviable. (7/n)
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... in lower priced parts of the country, affordability isn't the key problem. Site viability is, due to all of government's extra costs on house building, most of which weren't there back in 2013 or were considerably lower. (6/n)
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